HDTV Is The Big Wave Coming When RCA announced the formation of the NBC radio network in 1926, they wrote: "The market for receiving sets in the future will be determined largely by the quantity and quality of the programs broadcast. We say quantity because they must be diversified enough so that some of them will appeal to all possible listeners. by Dale E. Cripps
HDTV delivers not only the most perfect theatrical experience you will likely have it comes spiced with the full power of the computer. It is big in every way--big screen, big experience, big vision, big money, BIG RISK! Those who have seriously contemplated its future say that it will become great and leave the consumers breathless for generations to come...providing that the transition from today's television standard to H/DTV can be completed. Serious Pause When a nation is about to make a major transition in something a pause in the process of cultural adoption can be expected. All involved stop, or are stopped by something, making time for deeper introspection on what has been decided, and by whom. Abandoning a fully entrenched and profitable business for a still-unproven one is mind-boggling enough. This is not an upgrade to one's Play Station. Moving to H/DTV changes the entire infrastructure of an old, and once secure and comfortable friend--broadcasting. While the massive scale of this transition has been soberly assessed and understood by both the industry and the FCC, the difficulty of actually making the transition work has been grossly underestimated . A pause in the roll came this time triggered by a poor, but isolated evaluation of the FCC's modulation scheme for over-the-air broadcasting. After two years of bickering the question was resolved, though not without a controversy. The FCC's standard was given back its reputation at about the same time Hollywod crowned themselves king and demanded copy protection for their digitally distributed movies (and other content). No official change in the time table (that was first laid down by the FCC) has occured, though there is an understanding that many will not be on the air by the May 2002 deadline. Those not meeting their deadline will file for extentions. There is not enough industry support--whichever way you define it--to build the DTV facilities in time. No signal provider knows yet how money is to be made with HDTV. Broadcast pioneer John Green from WRAL thinks it is not a matter of making money from it, but the requirement for just remaining in the broadcast business. Even the most armed doubters agree that we are on a course which cannot be reversed without a catastrophy and/or crisis. We are now diving headfirst into the next phase of the H/DTV roll out--we can call it Phase II--the defining year. More H/DTV products--over three hundred--fill showrooms across the nation. That will make Phase II both cheaper and better than Phase I. But more programming to fill those new screens is still slow in coming, though some more IS coming. ABC has just added three more series. Movies are showing more often. Big sports events are in the works. Major League Baseball will see 29 games in HDTV. And, if my time should decide to come, I would love to build from this highly charged movement the finest television global network the world has ever known. I see no reason why anyone starting a HDTV network should aim any lower. The talent will fall in love with it as will the homeowner. We already hear the phrase "I love HDTV" more than any other. Whether national objective or not, the transition demands a God-like patience. Dr. Joseph Flaherty, the father of HDTV in the U.S.A., said that those in charge must have the courage of lions. They must make decisions at times against their own self-interests and they must possess the power to look forward into uncharted space. An unshakable determination to succeed with the DTV transition is the prerequisite for its leadership. A steady hand on the tiller must guide television executives, computer executives, state and federal government officials, local agencies, the program producers, retailers, and. most importantly, see every consumer through the transition. All Supposing the transition gets tangled-up and stalls in mid-air leaving an un-fixable mess to replace our once-powerful national NTSC broadcast business? Broadcasting can go to ruin with a misfiring of the DTV transition. All who still depend on it could be left to scrambling for scarce resources. CEA had given up on broadcasting, or so it would seem from their DTVGuide of May 2001. "Network programming is not only fracturing, but it is falling apart," said the trade associations organ, "Why should we bind any perceived success or failure to the outdated dogmas of the past." This old and reliable NTSC standard is still proclaimed by older captains of television to be their most valuable asset--even more than their spectrum. H/DTV is a threat to those assets until installed in as many homes as is NTSC. That is still 97 million households away. We have a lot of work to do. To complete the transition the consumers must be courted as never before by manufacturing, retailing, broadcasting, satellite channels, cable channels, and the government. The public must be genuinely excited about the promise of H/DTV if they are to do their part on time. For those hoping for better programming, act soon. You will need to influence such an outcome. The soul of great artists can power the entire HDTV movement. Whoever gathers together the great ones from the arts and engages them in service to the transition will undoubtedly succeed in fulfilling the promise of delivering the finest television network in the world. Who Is Now In The Lead? The developers of the FCC standard--the Grand Alliance--dissolved into competitive fizz when the standard was submitted to the FCC in 1996. The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) assumed some of the lead in the last three years with NAB popping up now and then. Mostly it has been running on its own. A few manufacturing members of CEA have made investments in program and signal sources to support hardware sales. Some think it is still only a light seeding. It's very expensive to gain the public's conviction on something new. "That is at least one billion dollars," says former RCA CEO, Dr. Joseph Donahue.
Cable is a diverse group. Paul Allen is an owner of cable systems (Charter). He has long term dreams financed by his Microsoft success. He recently created a new HDTV cable-carried service for the Pacific Northwest to showcase his Portland TrailBlazers in HDTV. AT&T, Time-Warner, Comcast, and Cox have made deals recently with local stations for carrying their HDTV programming. Mark Cuban, the Broadcast.Com success story, has launched a new HDTV/DBS & Cable carriage network of mostly sports. He was instrumental in causing NBC to share a HDTV feed for the Olympics. Both HDNet and the NBC affiliates delivered stunning Olympic footage that will be talked about for the rest of this year. INFORMATION IS LEADING Right now information about H/DTV is leading the movement. It looks like it will continue to lead it until the arts come with their compelling programming. Then the lead is clearly theirs. When that is established everyone will have to scramble to keep up. The BIG wave has arrived. Again, everything hinges on the consumer and where they place their demand$. Many have written that in a post 9|11 period people are looking more for substance and quality than for hollow and cheap. I think it is safe to say that HDTV will swell to form the biggest wave on the cultural/business horizon for consumer electronics. I think it is safer to say that HDTV will transform not only the United States, but the rest of the world in due time. Dale E. Cripps Revised March 2002
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ake no mistake--the commercialization of H/DTV is a staggering task--one that alters the nature of broadcasting as it converges with the telephone and computer industries.
