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HDTV Almanac - The Big Three Networks
by Alfred Poor on February 15, 2012 Categories: Internet HD Video

Everything seems to come in threes. We had the Big Three Automakers in Detroit. There were those little pigs. And then there were the major television networks: Netflix, Amazon, and Google.

Wait a minute; what happened to ABC, CBS, and NBC?

From where I sit, that is ancient history. The traditional networks are dead men walking, and just don’t know it. They are trying to stick with the old models of providing the conduit for video entertainment, and they are failing. Streaming content over the Internet bypasses the traditional network, making it an unnecessary intermediary in the system between content producer and consumer. And it may also squeeze out the traditional role of “advertiser” at the same time. If we have learned one thing from the Internet, it is death to the middleman; Amazon Kindle, Square, and Zappos are just a few examples.

Most of the content shown on online systems such as Netflix and Amazon are reruns. The traditional networks and Hollywood movie studios try to wring out some additional value from these leftovers so they license the content for streaming. And in the process, they have sowed the seeds of their own demise. They have provided the fuel for the fire that is the consumer demand to watch what they want, when they want, where they want. And that is a fire that can’t be put out at this point.

But can the networks be replaced? Netflix has launched its original content with the series “Lilyhammer” and will follow up with “House of Cards” with Kevin Spacey and a revival of the popular “Arrested Development” next year. Google’s YouTube is investing in original content as well, and is providing full-length programming of all sorts.

And here comes GigaOM with a breaking story that Amazon has posted job openings for creative positions with the goal of creating its own content. The service is a bit of a sleeper in the streaming video arena at this point, but its Amazon Prime members get to watch all sorts of content for free (along with many other useful bonuses) in return for a Netflix-like monthly fee. Many consumers may find that they can get a better combined value from Amazon, and if the company starts producing compelling content, it could be a major force.

The new world of video entertainment is going to require a new world of ways to pay for the content’s creation. Who do you think is in a better position to deliver a new model: ABC, CBS, and NBC, or Google, Netflix, and Amazon?

I rest my case.

Posted by Alfred Poor, February 15, 2012 5:00 AM

Reader Commentary

Reply
videograbber • Feb 15, 7:51am
> And then there were the major television networks: Netflix, Amazon, and Google. Wait a minute; what happened to ABC, CBS, and NBC? From where I sit, that is ancient history. The traditional networks are dead men walking, and just don’t know it. <

Wow. That's quite a leap. Usually I can't find too much to fault in your commentaries, Alfred, but you're way off base with this one, IMO. Why do I say that? Because content is king. And your new, so called "big 3" haven't got any. How much content do I watch each week from the "dead men walking"? About 30 hours. How much from your trio? Zero.

Why do you think the big whoop-de-do launch of Google TV fell flat on it's face? And the hardware products got withdrawn or flushed at fire-sale prices? No content. Sure, I can see that your trio is making the very first tentative steps in that direction (developing their own content). ...
Reply
alfredpoor • Feb 16, 11:23am
Thanks for calling me out on this one, videograbber; I think you read my post exactly as I intended it. Yes, I make a huge leap from today's reality in my analysis, and of course I'm not really saying that ABC, CBS, and NBC will disappear before the year's end. My point is that they know exactly how to develop and deliver content "the old school way" and that they have clearly demonstrated that they are pretty clueless and ill-equipped for the new world of TV 2.0 or whatever we're going to call it.

Old school success was about attracting content from independent sources and making a market for it. New success will depend on creating galaxy-sized Big Data collections of metadata about billions (trillions?) of minutes of content that is available from lots of different sources, including directly from those independent sources that used to depend on the Big Three to be the gatekeepers and provide an audience. The New Big Three will be able to enable the audience to find what t...
Reply
alfredpoor • Feb 16, 2:51pm
Related to this discussion, I thought you might be interested to see this:

http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=o8uqg7bab&v=001uhMSa17EQAeOIqpw0yKcO-KK5Gm0scI2Ew8cqbmzbXfM7E2GFskqPlBJjIUJS1SPyux-mc46-XPaNzIl0KJosVCnVkvJcYmIHr-KpyMt3yJCH-aKAyT_uqUcIkZH6o0xBoCCjFxl9b1ixMpgbcjfq-85AHJbXGEtEV4A6mbVhz8BdUADJyC-T3ODixw_Jbyk

One of my favorite sayings is "Great minds think alike, and fools seldom differ." Take your pick. <g>

Alfred
HDTV Almanac...
Reply
alfredpoor • Feb 17, 6:55am
My apologies for the cryptic post and the long URL. I was rushed when I posted it. The link is to a Constant Contact newsletter from The Diffusion Group (TDG) which is an excellent market analysis firm that tracks television and related markets. This newsletter in particular has a piece titled "5 Questions with Colin Dixon" who is a Senior Partner with the company. He discusses many of the same points that we've covered in this thread. Here's one quote of particular interest:

New giants in entertainment delivery and creation are beginning to establish themselves online - just look at Netflix. And despite their rhetoric, they are on a headlong collision course with traditional providers. The old guard is beginning to change, but the key question is whether they can turn the ship fast enough to out-maneuver the OTT companies.

So I may be way off base in my analysis, but it looks as though I'm not alone out there. <g>

Alfred...
Reply
alfredpoor • Feb 17, 12:44pm
Okay, now I've learned that some (most?) people don't see the newsletter when they follow the link. I've posted a PDF of the complete page here: www.hdtvprofessor.com/HDTVAlmanac/5Ques ... nDixon.pdf . I apologize for any inconvenience or confusion.

Alfred...
Reply
videograbber • Feb 17, 1:03pm
'now I've learned that some (most?) people don't see the newsletter when they follow the link.'

That's weird. I never had any problem it it, in any incarnation....
Reply
alfredpoor • Feb 17, 1:30pm
Thanks for letting me know that, videographer. I don't know what the problem was, but this should cover all the possibilities.

Alfred...

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About Alfred Poor

Alfred Poor is a well-known display industry expert, who writes the daily HDTV Almanac. He wrote for PC Magazine for more than 20 years, and now is focusing on the home entertainment and home networking markets.