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A story in today’s New York Times reveals that retail sales over the Thanksgiving / Black Friday weekend weren’t nearly as good as predicted, declining 11% Y-Y from 2013 according to the National Retail Federation. (That number includes both brick-and-mortar and online sales.)

To be sure, there is a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on as to why sales didn’t hit the NRF targets predicted for 2014. It could be that the average consumer is increasingly put off by the avalanche of Black Friday advertising (TV, radio, newspapers, online) and TV news footage showing shoppers slugging it out over $100 TVs.

Or, it could be that consumers, chastened by the 2007 – 2009 stock market crash and the Great Recession, are just reluctant to spend for the sake of spending. Perhaps would-be shoppers are fed up with big box store chains increasingly intruding on the one holiday that has largely managed to stay non-commercial – Thanksgiving.

Whatever the reasons, it was clear that people voted with their feet to stay home and skip the madness. Returning from a family get-together in New York, my wife and I stopped at a BJ’s in New Jersey to pick up a few sundry items and heck out the latest mobile phones for our upgrade in a few weeks.

The store was busy for a Friday afternoon, but not insanely so. There were about 10 people at the Verizon counter, scoping out the Samsung Galaxy 5, LG G3, Motorola Droid Turbo, and a few other models. We grabbed our paper goods and I wandered over to the TV section to see if there were any deals.

Not surprisingly, there were plenty. What did surprise me was the steep discounts on Ultra HDTVs, with some as steep as 50%. Samsung’s UN55HU6840 55-inch Ultra HD model was advertised at $899 through Saturday night, and there were plenty in stock. (Full retail is $1799.99.)

Samsung's entry-level 55-inch Ultra HD was marked down an astonishing 50% for the weekend.

Samsung’s entry-level 55-inch Ultra HD was marked down an astonishing 50% for the weekend.

Nearby, a Samsung 65-inch “loaded” 2K TV (3D, smart functions, Wi-Fi, the works) was marked down to $1169.99 from $2099, and this price was good through Sunday evening. Again, a huge discount, but there were plenty of them available with only a few tire-kickers spotted nearby.

Later Friday evening around 7:30 PM, we stopped by the BJ’s closest to home and saw the same TV deals there. The store was almost empty (you could hear the crickets chirping) and the Verizon stand was deserted except for three customer service agents. That, even though Verizon had some steep Black Friday discounts of their own, such as $250 off the price of a Samsung Galaxy 5 and “free” LG G3s after rebates (2-year activation required).

After several years of declining TV sales, manufacturers clearly want to bring back the good old days. The problem they’ve created now is that the average Joe isn’t going to understand with a TV with 10 additional inches, but half the screen resolution, sells for $250 more than a TV that’s 10 inches smaller but has four times the screen resolution.

No, I believe that what will motivate buyers to whip out their credit cards over the next couple of months before the Super Bowl will be a simple screen size / price equation. If Ultra HD sets are already edging below $1K for 55-inch and even 60-inch sizes on Black Friday, that’s where they’ll be again in mid-January during the peak of the TV selling season. “Ultra” is better than “2K” or “1080p,” right? Whatever “Ultra” means, right?

The cat has been let out of the bag, and what that will do to 2K TV prices is depress them even further. 55-inch smart 2K TVs were widely available all weekend at big box stores for less than $800. Why buy one of those if you could pick up a 4K model for just $100 more?

I’ve predicted that we will eventually see all TVs larger than 55 inches migrate to Ultra HD resolution, thanks to an oversupply of LCD panels, China’s ramped-up production, and slackening demand for TVs. That day may be coming faster than you think, based on Black Friday and Cyber Monday pricing…

Posted by Pete Putman, December 1, 2014 12:42 PM

About Pete Putman

Peter Putman is the president of ROAM Consulting L.L.C. His company provides training, marketing communications, and product testing/development services to manufacturers, dealers, and end-users of displays, display interfaces, and related products.

Pete edits and publishes HDTVexpert.com, a Web blog focused on digital TV, HDTV, and display technologies. He is also a columnist for Pro AV magazine, the leading trade publication for commercial AV systems integrators.