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The following is drawn wholly from a HD-HDTV public relations spin article about the raging high definition pre-recorded format war. The HD DVD camp was recently stung by a PR coup when Blockbuster popped up with a boldly worded press release saying that they will be carrying the Blu-ray format exclusively in a significant number (1450) of their better located stores. HD DVD advocates say that there is far more to the story than first meets the eye. The war between the two HDTV DVD formats, they claim, is far from won (as the Blu-ray advocates claimed immediately following the Blockbuster announcement). You, as always, are the final judge of which direction the disks are truly spinning. Blockbuster Choice of Blu-ray has Little Impact on Blue Format War Austin, TX (July 2, 2007) - Blockbuster's recent announcement that 1450 of its stores would exclusively carry Blu-ray Disc titles as their high-definition offering, has been noted by some as a potential turning point in the battle between the two formats. However, the development may be considerably less significant than it appears on its surface, in affecting a format war that is arguably still a year away from crowning a victor. Paul Erickson, market analyst with IMS Research, feels the alignment between Blockbuster and the Blu-ray Disc format should not come as a surprise; "Sony is a supplier of video content to Blockbuster, has a major retail presence in video-related consumer electronics that can potentially be linked with Blockbuster on a promotional basis, and is a significant investor in the online movie download service Movielink, which Blockbuster has actively been trying to acquire. It makes much more strategic sense in general for Blockbuster to ally itself with Sony's Blu-ray Disc format versus Toshiba's HD DVD." Based on his work in the report, "The Future of High-Definition TV - 2007 Edition," Erickson states that the announcement will ultimately have limited impact: "The retail video rental business remains in a steady decline. Though this announcement appears to be a PR coup for Blu-ray Disc, it is doubtful that it will actually drive increased hardware penetration. Actual sales indicate that mainstream consumers are generally happy with DVD, and still find both blue formats' standalone players too expensive for mass adoption, regardless of content availability. Also of note, only a portion of Blockbuster's approximately 4500 retail outlets in the US are affected. The company has hedged its position by stating that consumer demand would govern its choices and by allowing its existing 250 stores that offer both blue formats, as well as its online rental service, to continue renting HD DVD titles." The expectation is for HD DVD players to reach the coveted $200 price point by holiday 2007 or early 2008 while maintaining a 40-50% price advantage over the cheapest Blu-ray players. Combined with slow Sony Playstation 3 sales in the US, Erickson believes these factors point to a format war that is still quite in contention: "The format that can achieve the greatest mass-market hardware penetration of its standalone players will ultimately win. With the price drops for both formats' players expected for the end of this year, 2008 will be the true test of whether HD DVD's low entry price or Blu-ray's greater studio support will prove the stronger factor in driving the mainstream sales numbers needed for victory."
Posted by Dale Cripps, July 2, 2007 12:11 PM
Reader Commentary I agree that the war is far from "over", but I still predict that Blu-ray will win, or there will be no "winner"... AaronS... I think Blu-Ray continues to have an advantage because it is the choice of Disney. As betamax taught us, just having the best specs is not enough to win a format war. Since there are players that can use both formats, in the end, these factors will have an impact: -- Most new titles. -- The most titles that people are likely to re-buy. Find out what LORD OF THE RINGS and STAR WARS will be in, and there's a clue. Titles that sold well in VHS AND DVD would be a good predictor, too. -- The format favored by porn. If a clear leader emerges in the world of porn, there's your odds-on fave for the rest of the world. -- A wild card factor -- which one is easier to spell and say? With fewer syllables and nothing that sounds like stuttering (try saying HD-DVD five times fast), I give the edge to Blu-Ray on that one, if only by a nose. -- Something even weirder and more obscure that I can't think of.... Interesting observations. But I've always maintained that there will be no "winner". Each "camp" is so far invested in their respective format that there is no turning back. They each have enough players and titles out on the market to support themselves regardless of what the other format does. They will keep duking it out and declaring themselves "winner" until something comes along to replace them, quite likely video download. I'm not saying that's going to be this year, or even in the next 3 years ... but I think that's the only technology that has enough added value to push high-def packaged media (i.e. HD DVD & Blu-ray) out of the way. Having said that, here is my take on the pro's/con's of each. And remember, the "average consumer" will decide which way this one goes, not we enthusiasts: - The Name: HD DVD gets my vote here. Rather than a pronunciation hindrance as you suggest, I believe this is one of their greatest strengths. The average consumer knows exactly ... Shane, I disagree with you on the tech part. Blu-Ray is only advantageous technology wise on the computer because it holds up to 50GB (dual-layer) rather than 30GB (DL HD DVD). I'm format neutral. However, I'm annoyed that the set-top Blu-Ray players and discs which are supposed to be superior lack interactivity and are unupgradable to the newer Java standard.... Capacity is not just an advantage on the PC side. It also allows for more content on the disc, more bonus features (yes, those sell discs), better audio, etc. Blu-ray has better throughput (Mbps) as well, allowing for higher bitrates. Blu-ray has additional encryption options in BD+ also, which may become useful from "Hollywood's" view if AACS keeps having problems. And given the physical makeup of the disc, Bluray is more resistant to scratching than HD DVD. Blu-ray has had 24 frame output and 1080p longer than HD DVD, and until last week was all alone in its 24 frame capability. I will agree that HD DVD made the right decision requiring internet connectivity as part of the standard, vs Blu-ray making it optional ... but that will not have an immediate advantage. For the record, I am an HD DVD owner. Enjoy, - Shane... :roll: I own both players and have a substantial investment in the discs. HD discs can be imported from Europe and play in US players. For example, "The Graduate" is available in the UK and Germany. I don't think classic films are a priority with either camp in domestic pressiongs. The last Harry Potter film is also out in most of Western Europe on HD. What's holding it up here, with the latest film coming out this summer? Toshiba just sent me a free firmware update disc. I was hoping it would improve the response time of the controls on the remote, but that hasn't been the case. I often wonder if all the buttons are just for show! Changing audio tracks, subtitles, etc., is a real challenge with Toshiba! On the other hand, the Sony Blu-Ray machine is much more responsive to its remote controls. There is a type of region encoding, so European discs may or may not play here, depending on content. Titles available on both formats are often several dollars cheaper on Blu-R... I don't get where you believe that the BR disc is less apt to be damaged than the HD-DVD. The info on the BR is much closer to the surface and has a thin blue coating that I think will not be as the thick coating on the HD DVD. I presonally hope that Sony bites it again. They have this way of trying to force people into using their product especially in the broadcast industry. If they didn't learn the lesson of convenience of use and features from the beta days they will most likely lose out again. As far as the size of disc 30 vs 50 I'm not sure that it will make that much difference. The bonus features IMHO are better if they are on a 2nd disc anyway. It makes for a less cluttered menu set up on the main disc. Right now the porn industry has not gone one way or the other although it looks like they will have to go with HD DVD. This is due to the fact that Disney went with BR disc. It is my understanding that Disney has pushed a clause in it's contract that it would not allow it's pr... I didn't say less resistant to damage (i.e. data layer), I said less resistant to scratching. The coating on a Blu-ray disc is much more durable than that of HD DVD. It had to be for the very reasons you describe. - S... Hopefully, the various high definition DVD manufacturers read your blog, because to this "average consumer" who has been waiting since October, 2006 to buy one or the other formats...I WON"T buy either until something definitive is decided. Count me as one of the "unwashed masses"...but there's millions of us just waiting...and waiting...and...... You'll continue waiting for at least a year. Shane, you mentioned bit rates. However, the software publishers aren't taking advantage of Blu-Ray's bit rates. They're putting in lower sound samplings on the Blu-Ray discs than the HD discs. This is my major Blu-Ray complaint--other than 1080p/24 (and slightly better studio support), I haven't seen anything in IMPLEMENTATION where Blu-Ray beats HD-DVD.... More in Category: Blu-ray
About Dale CrippsDale Cripps is a professional journalist who has focused two thirds of his career on the subject of high-definition television. Upon completing his education in business and service in the military he formed Cripps and Associates, South Pasadena, California, in 1964, which operated as a market-development company for aerospace services. In 1983 he turned to television and began what has become a 20 year campaign to pioneer HDTV. For fifteen of those years he published the well-regarded HDTV Newsletter (an international monthly written for television professionals). During much of this same time he also served as the HDTV-Technical Editor for "Widescreen Review Magazine." On November 16, 1998 he launched the Internet distributed HDTV Magazine, which remains the only consumer publication devoted exclusively to high-definition television. In April of 2002 he co-founded with Tedson Meyers of Coudert Bros, the High-definition Television Association of America, which is presently based in Washington DC. Cripps is the president of this organization. Mr. Cripps is a charter member of the Academy of Digital Television Pioneers and honored by that organization with the DTV Press Leadership Award of 2002. He makes his home in Oregon. |
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