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Austin,
Texas, January 15, 2008 - DisplaySearch, the worldwide
leader in display market research and consulting, reports that sales of
equipment used to manufacture TFT LCDs is expected to surge 40% to more
than $11.6 billion in 2008, and will likely remain at a similar level
through 2009 in its Quarterly TFT LCD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending
Report.
According to DisplaySearch Vice President
of Manufacturing Research Charles Annis, "2007 turned out to be an
excellent year for TFT LCD panel makers. Unfortunately, it was a very
challenging year for equipment companies, who generated only $8.3
billion in revenues, down 35% from 2006 levels. These dynamics of
reduced investment and healthy panel maker earnings, coupled with
continued strong demand, are now setting 2008 up to be a bumper year for
almost all segments of the LCD industry and a reversal of fortune for
equipment companies."
"New investments in 2008 and 2009 will
increase capacity, help keep prices on a declining curve, and likely
push demand further than even previously expected," Annis added.
"However, the entire TFT LCD supply chain needs to be careful, if all
panel makers rush to dramatically increase capacity in the next two
years, the industry could once again set itself up for a significant
over-supply and a repeat of the crystal cycle in 2010."
Additional highlights from the
DisplaySearch Q4'07 Quarterly Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report
include
• Compared to the previous estimates, new
investments and capacity expansions have been increased and pulled in so
now 46 individual fab investments are forecast between the start of
Q3'07 to the end of Q3'10, eight of which will be for new LTPS lines,
conversions of a-Si to p-Si or expansions of current capacity.
• Counting a new IPS Alpha fab, AMLCD TFT
array capacity is expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate of
34% from 4.5 million m2 in 2000 to over 209 million m2 in 2013. Color
Filter capacity is on a similar growth curve, expanding from 5.3 million
m2 in 2000 to over 216 million m2 in 2013.
• Multiple older PDP lines are being shut
down as more productive lines come on stream, especially those not able
to meet 1080p precision requirements. And even despite the recently
announced Matsushita, Hitachi and Canon alliance, Matsushita is still
expected to forge ahead and build a 12-up, 42" equivalent PDP mega fab
that should focus on 50" and larger TV production.
• The top five LCD makers-Samsung, AUO,
LPL, CMO and Sharp-are forecast to continue to invest at the highest
rates increasing their total share of capacity from 79.6% in Q3'07 to
82.9% in Q3'09.
• In terms of TFT LCD capacity,
supply/demand was extremely tight from Q2-Q4'07. Supply/Demand is now
closely linked to seasonality, and is expected to be loser in Q1'08, but
then grow tight through the end of the year, helping to keep panel
pricing firm. Based on the current outlook, 2009 and 2010 supply/demand
should grow progressively looser.
• Supply/Demand of key components such as
CCFLs, glass substrates, CF, TAC film and PVA film also affect panel
maker's ability to utilize capacity. In Q3'07 and Q4'07, color filters
and glass substrates were in shortage, restricting the amount of panels
that could be produced. Key component supply will remain a gating factor
for panel production in 2008 and then should loosen in 2009.
• TFT fab utilization as an industry
average continuously increased from a very low 85.4% in Q1'07 to a very
high 95.7% in Q3/Q4'07, which is the highest level recorded since
DisplaySearch started tracking this segment in 2000.
• As shown in the following table below,
with Gen 10, lots of Gen 8 and other expansions, including a second IPS
Alpha fab, going forward TFT equipment makers should see significantly
higher revenues than 2007.
|
Year |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
|
Revenues |
$3.6 |
$6.7 |
$3.8 |
$5.2 |
$6.3 |
$13.3 |
$10.5 |
$12.7 |
$8.3 |
$11.6 |
$11.3 |
$10.5 |
$9.6 |
|
Growth |
0% |
85% |
-43% |
36% |
22% |
109% |
-21% |
22% |
-35% |
40% |
-3% |
-8% |
-8% |
• TFT LCD makers achieved pre-tax profit
margins of 17% on average in Q3'07, the best performance since Q2'04 and
exceeding the prior peak. Large area TFT LCD panel margins are forecast
to be even higher in Q4'07 and push into the 20% level during 2008. Most
industry participants are quite optimistic about 2008.
The metrics behind these trends and
breaking industry news are explained and analyzed in great detail, and
further backed up by expanded Excel data tables in the recently
published Q4'07 Quarterly Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report.
The Quarterly TFT LCD Supply/Demand and
Capital Spending Report is one of DisplaySearch's most comprehensive
publications, which offers detailed insights on actual and forecast
AMLCD fab activity, panel supply/demand, fab utilization and the capital
equipment market. Furthermore, the report provides a broader prospective
on the FPD industry through discussion of module, PDP, OLED and color
filter fab activity, total announced capital spending, panel maker
financial information and a variety of other relevant topics. The
280-slide PowerPoint report covers a wide 13-quarter rolling forecast
range, with this edition evaluating Q3'07 - Q3'10. Annual forecasts
extend from 1999 through 2011 or 2013. The PowerPoint file is
accompanied by DisplaySearch's proprietary database of TFT array fab
install and substrates per month and square meters capacity. The easy to
filter, sort and sum Excel data includes fields for fab region,
manufacturer, fab name, glass size, generation, technology, expansion
phase, equipment maximum capacity, purchase order, install, mass
production, end dates and probability factor. The data tables have been
expanded to include all equipment total data for easy reference.
The report continues to increase content
and depth of analysis with every edition, since Q1'07 the following new
features have been added:
• PDP equipment forecast
• Expanded panel maker coverage-For
example, Samsung
Electronics (SEC) was added to the CapEx historical numbers and
forecast analysis. Innolux, TPO and Wintek are now included in the list
of companies covered in the Taiwanese fund raising activities section.
Innolux was added to panel maker debt-to-equity and liability analysis.
• A new chapter on quarterly Investor
Conferences and Financial summaries
• Enhanced
data file with sum totals for capacity by individual fab, equipment data
in Excel, including array equipment spending by region and generation
• Added "tier" definitions for
small/medium producers
• Capacity conversion analysis
• Substantially increased inside
information and DisplaySearch analysis of relevant trends through a
subsection of "TFT LCD News & Information Analysis" and "Implications"
slides
• Unit size demand forecast breakout by application
• Explanation and data on depreciation schedules by
region
• Install date range details added to the detailed
equipment investment timing tables to better represent how equipment
moves into a fab over time
For more information on the DisplaySearch
Q4'07 Quarterly Supply Demand and Capital Spending Report, please
contact arie@displaysearch.com,
or contact your regional DisplaySearch offices in Japan, Korea,
Taiwan and
China.
Company Contact:
Arie Braun
DisplaySearch
512.687.1505 (ph)
512.628.3484 (fax)
E-mail:
arie@displaysearch.com
Media Contact:
Stacey Voorhees
Public Relations
925.336.9592 (ph)
E-mail:
stacey@savvypublicrelations.net
About DisplaySearch
DisplaySearch, an NPD Group company, has a core team of 57 employees
located in Europe,
North America and
Asia who produce a valued suite of FPD-related market forecasts,
technology assessments, surveys, studies and analyses. The company also
organizes influential events worldwide. Headquartered in
Austin, Texas,
DisplaySearch has regional operations in
Chicago,
Houston,
Kyoto,
London, San Diego,
San Jose,
Seoul,
Shenzhen,
Taipei and
Tokyo, and the
company is on the web at
http://www.displaysearch.com/. |