Today's Show:
Technology moves faster now than it ever has before. Things that were cutting edge just a year ago are almost antiques already. 2008 saw some really great and exciting things in the world of HDTV and Home Theater. Back in January we tried to predict what we thought would happen. Let's take a look at our predictions to see how we fared.

2008 Prediction Scorecard

1. HD-DVD and Blu-ray will not unify. There's no way to "unify" the formats without totally alienating all the existing owners and without both camps making some huge concessions. Toshiba may be willing to talk, but Sony doesn't do concessions. Ara believes there's too much momentum behind Blu-ray, by the end of the year, although HD-DVD will not have closed up shop, Blu-ray will be the de-facto winner. Braden believes that we'll see more of the same in 2008, both sides will continue to slug it out and the war will drag on for one more year.

Result: Close, but then again, so far off. Sure the two formats didn't unify, so we get partial credit on that. But obviously Blu-ray won. Ara was the closest with his prediction; Braden flat out missed the boat.

2. Microsoft will make a huge push into the living room. Assuming everyone already has a Vista computer, they'll subsidize Media Center Extenders, to try to push them into your family room. On top of that, they'll put together a VUDU style movie download offering to seal the deal.

Result: Wrong. Microsoft didn't make a huge push. The XBox 360 is selling well, and Vista Media Center is gaining a little traction, but there wasn't a "huge push" from Microsoft. We could characterize 2008 as "more of the same" in that regard.

3. Stand-alone Blu-ray player prices fall. Blu-ray players start to enter mass market pricing and sales will pick up dramatically. This will give Sony the confidence they need to not give in to any unification talks. As if the 3 million PS3's weren't enough.

Result: Dead on. Blu-ray prices fell to below $150 this year. We'll just ignore that comment on unification talk. Blu-ray prices fell ... although we haven't really seen mass adoption yet. Perhaps 2009?

4. VUDU will gain momentum and make big strides in 2008. They will find a new pricing model that makes more sense to the Netflix style user who's already used to the all-you-can-eat model. As they make more money, hardware prices will drop and the boxes will fly out of the warehouse.

Result: Partial credit. Vudu has done some really good things, they have the newer players and the HDX format, which is really awesome. But they've also had their share of difficulty including a pretty good size layoff. Still around, still a player, but no new pricing model and no boxes flying out of the warehouse.

5. Portable HD-DVD players hit the market. To combat the surging Blu-ray player sales, Toshiba starts selling other forms of HD-DVD players, like portable units, and in-car units. They'll subsidize them as well, to make sure they sell.

Result: Move on, nothing to see here...It's hard to believe the war was still as strong an it was just one year ago. It feels like ancient history now. We'd sure like to think all of our predictions around HD-DVD were ancient history. So sad.

6. Apple will redo the Apple TV as a true media center device. This essentially means the Apple TV will go away and the Mini be re-branded with some new software. But Steve Jobs won't be content to just say that the Apple TV foray into the living room was a failure and walk away. They'll also increase the quality of movie downloads and make it easy to put them in the living room or on your iPod.

Result: Wrong. Apple didn't do much with the Apple TV. They added some new media and purchase/rental options, added a bell here and a whistle there, but no media center, that's for sure. This is probably Ara's biggest disappointment on the list. Looking back, we aren't sure if this was a prediction or something we wanted and hope for so bad, we put it on the list with the hope that we could will it into existence.

7. Wireless HDMI will come to market. Companies will start to sell wireless HDMI devices, in readily available quantities, by the ends of the year. They will be stand-alone HDMI cable replacements, and net yet built into your typical consumer electronics device, that will come in 2009.

Result: Correct-ish. Wireless HDMI did come to market. Hundreds of thousands of chips have shipped. But are the devices shipping in "readily available quantities?" Maybe not so much. This one was really close.

8. LCD HDTV sales will skyrocket. We'll see a huge up-tick in sales of small, inexpensive LCD HDTVs. Due in part to the limited availability of CRT televisions, and all the hype that will be surrounding the analog cut-off in 2009, people will pick up a new 27-32" LCD in droves to make sure they're ready.

Result: Nailed it. This was the safe bet. We were already seeing momentum in this direction early in the year. But by the end of 2008 the LCD has emerged as the dominant TV format, in North America at least.

9. Reality shows will go high def. The argument against HD will be overshadowed by the pressure to go HD this year. Shows that have never been in HD will have to do so in the fall, just to stay relevant. Some, like Dancing with the Stars and American Idol, are already there; others will join.

Result: We aren't sure. Unfortunately we aren't sure how to score this. Neither of us are big reality show fans. Sure some reality shows are in HD, but many others are still in SD. We don't know if there are more on one side or the other. We do know, however, that Survivor finally went HD, so we did good on that one.

10. HDMI-CEC will take hold. As consumers buy HDTVs, and connect them with HDMI cables, they'll start to see the power of the HDMI-CEC (Consumer Electronics Control) protocol. Manufacturers will finally figure out a way to tell consumers that, even though they have their own special name for it (EZ-Sync, Anynet+, SimpleLink, etc.), the protocol will actually work with other manufacturers devices as well.

Result: Close. We do see a version of HDMI-CEC on almost every home theater device being sold today. Some are talking about interoperability, but not all. There's still a ways to go on this one, but it's moving in the right direction.

Posted by The HT Guys, December 25, 2008 10:57 PM