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The HT Guys HDTV and Home Theater Podcast #342 - 2009 Home Theater Predictions
By The HT Guys
Braden Russell and Ara Derderian
Posted on January 2, 2009
Category: General Interest
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Today's Show:
It's that time of year again. We try to predict the future, at least the future of HDTV and Home Theater. We'll try to stay away from the real obvious ones like TV prices will come down or Blu Ray players will be more affordable.

Predictions for 2009

Ara's Predictions

Netbooks will become popular as portable A/V devices - Ara has been playing around with his HP Mini laptop (apparently Netbook is a registered brand name) and feels that this niche may have legs. At about $500 you can buy a device that will play your music, videos, and access the web. Running the Slingplayer on the device is simple and fun. The devices are lightweight and and go just about anywhere. A full review will come in early 2009.

Movie Download services will Blossom - With the economy slowing down and movie ticket prices going up consumers will turn to movie download services like AppleTV and Vudu. Why spend $40 plus refreshments to go see movies with the family. The download services are cheaper and more convenient.

Corollary Prediction to Above - Studios realizing that consumers are staying home and downloading will shorten the release window movies.

Blu Ray Movie Prices will be on par with their DVD counterparts - The studios will want to push Blu Ray player sales so they can get you to update your current library with Blu Ray discs. The strategy will fail but we'll take $18 Blu Ray movies.

Digital Transition will go smoothly - You can't turn on a TV without February 17th showing up someplace on your screen. At this point I feel the government has done a great job of warning consumers. The real ad campaign is yet to come. There will be some who aren't prepared but like the Y2K issue of 9 years ago. The transition will come and go without a hitch.

DirecTV and/or Dish Network will start transmitting Dolby Digital Plus Audio Tracks on some channels - OK, I'll admit it. This is me just wishing for it. But why not?


Braden's Predictions

New release downloads will go "all you can eat" - Someone will come up with a monthly subscription pricing plan that both makes sense for consumers and is profitable for themselves and the studios. There are a ton of potential options here: Netflix, Vudu, Apple, Sony, Microsoft - even Cable companies. It doesn't really matter who does it as long as the pricing is affordable (not much more than an existing Netflix subscription) and there's a wide selection of new release movies.

Portable Blu-ray players will hit the shelves - We'll finally see small Blu-ray players for road trips and airline flights. They'll also start to make their way into automobile entertainment systems. This will help make Blu-ray discs as easily portable as existing DVDs.

A true iPhone alternative will emerge - Let's face it, right now the iPhone is the only smart phone out there. And I am by no means an iFanBoy - I don't even own one. Something will come out in 2009 that will present a true alternative for those looking for a sleek, sexy, do it all phone that isn't an iPhone. It may be Google, could be Microsoft, or even Samsung or Nokia. But they aren't going to let another year go by without any real competition.

Blu-ray prices will fall to be the same as DVD - Ara and I agree on this one. The Blu-ray group will realize that nobody wants to pay a premium for Blu-ray when they're perfectly happy with DVD. To get them to switch, they'll make Blu-ray available for the same price.

Something really exciting will happen in TV technology - That's a bold prediction, huh? I'm thinking either LED based LCD will hit shelves at attainable prices, ultra contrast plasma will finally arrive, or OLED will begin shipping in sizes greater than 40 inches. How's that for being bold?

Posted by The HT Guys, January 2, 2009 06:00 AM

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About The HT Guys

The HT Guys, Ara Derderian and Braden Russell, are Engineers who formerly worked for the Advanced Digital Systems Group (ADSG) of Sony Pictures Entertainment. ADSG was the R&D unit of the sound department producing products for movie theaters and movie studios.

Two of the products they worked on include the DCP-1000 and DADR-5000. The DCP is a digital cinema processor used in movie theaters around the world. The DADR-5000 is a disk-based audio dubber used on Hollywood sound stages.

ADSG was awarded a Technical Academy Award by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 2000 for the development of the DADR-5000. Ara holds three patents for his development work in Digital Cinema and Digital Audio Recording.

Every week they put together a podcast about High Definition TV and Home Theater. Each episode brings news from the A/V world, helpful product reviews and insights and help in demystifying and simplifying HDTV and home theater.