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Good response Jason. I agree with your points against the author's 70
million TV number. It is certainly tough to quantify how many would
really be affected but the number is definitely much smaller than 70
million.
Jeff
On 1/10/06, Jason Burroughs <
[email protected]> wrote:
> ----- HDTV Magazine Tips List -----
>
> The reason I posted this question is because of an article in Fortune
> magazine claiming that 70 million tv's will be obsolete in 2009. One point
> he made was that there will only be a 3 month window in 2008 to claim the
> vouchers and that you only have 3 months to claim them. For those
> interested, the article is below, and then my long-winded reply.
>
> ARTICLE:
> Marc Gunther, Fortune, January 4
>
> Your old TV set may well go dark in 2009, and believe it or not, that's a
> good thing.
>
> That's because, at the end of last year Congress approved legislation that
> set a date for the switch from analog to digital television -- February 17,
> 2009.
>
> But managing this transition -- which will render about 70 million TV sets
> obsolete -- will be not be easy. Nothing is, when the federal government
> gets involved. Indeed, Congress will soon have to revisit this issue, to
> clean up this mess it has created.
>
> This fixed switch date allows consumers, electronics manufacturers,
> broadcasters, cable and satellite operators to plan for the transition. All
> have a lot at stake.
>
> -Viewers Adrift
>
> But for consumers with one of those 70 million sets - many of whom are
> likely to be poor, elderly or uneducated, being forcibly switched from one
> technology to another will be a nightmare.
>
> To be sure, the transition will facilitate a lot of progress for both the
> tech industry and the public sector.
>
> Once TV stations switch to digital transmission, they will return to the
> government a big chunk of the radio spectrum they currently use to transmit
> their analog channels.
>
> Some of that spectrum will go to first responders - police, fire and public
> safety officials - so they can better communicate with one another.
> Breakdowns in emergency communication slowed the response to the September
> 11 terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina. New spectrum should help.
>
> The rest of the spectrum will be auctioned off to the highest bidders -
> probably tech companies. The sale of this valuable, scarce real estate is
> expected to bring in about $10 billion, maybe more. That will help reduce
> the federal budget deficit.
>
> -Fostering Innovation
>
> Better yet, when the spectrum is sold off, the companies that buy it will
> use it to develop new technology and services. Cheap, ubiquitous wireless
> broadband access is one possibility. Mobile TV or music services are others.
>
>
> Scheduled for 2008, the auction will be the biggest spectrum sale since a
> 1994-95 spectrum auction. That sale helped boost the mobile phone industry,
> boosting the number of cell phone subscribers in the U.S. from 24 million to
> 200 million. It also helped drive down the cost of wireless minutes from an
> average of 47 cents a minute to 9 cents a minute, according to analysis from
> financial services firm Stifel Nicolaus.
>
> "With the new auction, we will finally become a broadband nation," says
> Blair Levin, a Washington analyst with Stifel Nicolaus. "Google, Yahoo!,
> Microsoft, Intel, Dell - these companies will all benefit. The more
> broadband pipes you have, the more applications will come along, the more
> often you will upgrade your device."
>
> Indeed, Microsoft and Cisco all joined a Washington lobbying effort called
> the High Tech DTV Coalition to push for digital television. Congress has
> been debating the issue for a decade, ever since the 1996 telecom bill gave
> digital spectrum to broadcasters, with the expectation that they would
> eventually give their analog spectrum back.
>
> -Government Handouts
>
> The difficulty, of course, is that the analog broadcast system will then be
> shut down-which will leave most of today's TV sets unable to receive a
> signal over the air.
>
> Roughly 20 million of those soon-to-be-obsolete sets are in homes where
> people don't subscribe to cable or satellite. The other 50 million or so are
> in pay TV homes, and used as second, third or fourth sets. Sets hooked up to
> cable or satellite services should work fine no matter what.
>
> To avoid a consumer revolt, Congress has set aside about $1.5 billion to
> smooth the transition. Owners of outmoded TV sets will be eligible for two
> vouchers, worth $40 each, to help buy converter boxes that will enable
> today's analog TV sets to receive digital signals.
>
> Yes, the very same federal government that is cutting back on college loans
> and food stamps will soon be issuing TV vouchers.
>
> Consumer groups say this is only fair because the government is essentially
> reducing the value of people's property.
>
> "If you are forcing consumers to adopt new technology - whether or not they
> are ready - you ought to provide full compensation for everyone," says
> Jeannine Kenney of Consumers Union.
>
> Consumers Union says the transition, as currently planned, is "totally
> unworkable and unfair to consumers." It sure sounds that way.
>
> -Free TV Signals Scrambled
>
> People are supposed to apply for the vouchers during a three-month window in
> 2008, and use them within three months. But there probably won't be enough
> vouchers to go around, and no one really knows how much converter boxes will
> cost. Disadvantaged people are most likely to be left behind in the
> scramble.
>
> The nightmare scenario is that people who depend on free, over-the-air TV
> for news and entertainment will lose their access, or have to pay more for
> it, so that the rest of us can get faster service on our Blackberries and
> ESPN on our cell phones.
>
> Congress will return to DTV soon to deal with these issues and others,
> notably some major wrangles between broadcasters and cable operators. This
> is a big deal. Let's hope Washington can get it right.
>
>
> MY REPLY:
>
> Hi Marc,
>
> After spending the past 5 years being immersed in HDTV and the related
> technologies around it, I get frustrated when I read an article such as
> yours, which says, "This transition . will render about 70 million TV sets
> obsolete"
>
> "Obsolete" means you turn it on and nothing happens. No DVD, VCR, cable, or
> satellite.
>
>
> You are claiming that out of about 200 million TVs, *all* of the following
> is true for about 1 out of 3:
>
> -It's not used for anything other than receiving the 5-10 free over the air
> channels pulled in with rabbit ears
>
> -It will still work after 2009
>
> -the owner will not have purchased a new one by 2009
>
> -the owner will not be able to afford a dvd player, vhs player, cable, or
> satellite by 2009
>
> -the owner will fail to get a government subsidized converter
>
>
> That is a lot of assumptions! Is it reasonable to assume that 70 million
> televisions will meet those criteria? I don't think so, and I wonder if you,
> and others, do feel that way. I don't mind disagreeing about something, but
> I think in the case of digital TV, there's a lot of misinformation out
> there.
>
> Another comment I take issue with is, "Yes, the very same federal government
> that is cutting back on college loans and food stamps will soon be issuing
> TV vouchers." Of course this sounds absurd, because you left out the fact
> that they are only borrowing against money to be earned from the sale of the
> spectrum when the transition is complete. If you're going to argue that the
> auction isn't going to happen, I'd like to hear it. If there were no
> transition, and no spectrum to auction, there would be no TV vouchers. You
> may as well make fun of someone going to a dealership for a new car while
> they already have one, but forget to mention they are trading it in.
>
> I'm all for holding the government accountable, but your piece is pretty
> slanted against the transition. I hope you'll take my criticism in the
> spirit is intended, and consider being a little more balanced in your
> reporting.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Jason Burroughs
>
>
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