Always the path of American destiny has been into the unknown.
Always there arose enough reserves of strength, balances of sanity,
portions of wisdom to carry the nation through to a fresh start with
ever-renewing vitality.
- Carl Sandburg

As we approach the setting of the FCC's HDTV transmission standard it seems
essential that the industry focus upon how best to start the "HDTV business."
It is clear that without distributed signals, there is no major business in
the offing. The last crucial development in the HDTV birthing cycle is to
create a star program signal provider. The question has always been: Who is
going to do that-who is that provider?

Programming

We have to recognize that without one or more of these program/signal
providers the public has no basis upon which to acquire the new receivers. We
may as well acknowledge that no major communications company today (like
Murdoch or the Networks or the studios) have demonstrated fullhearted intent
to provide HDTV signal services. The money spent by them in setting the
standard is an insurance premium to protect against obsolecense, not to drive
it. It was also a spectrum deal.

The hope of the manufacturers has been that the FCC will force the broadcast
industry into initiating these non-compatible HDTV services. The price for
receving new spectrum, say the hopefuls and critics alike, must be to deliver
HDTV services! There is no political capital to be gained for the
Administration in enforcing that position since there is no knowledgable
public clammering for it. Some political capital would, in fact, have to be
spent. Broadcasters in the final analysis are partners in electing the
political body. We need to accept that it is unlikely that HDTV will be
forced and that there is a need for an alternative plan to launch HDTV.

Without the FCC forcing HDTV, the broadcasters will enter only upon
competitive pressure. There is no obvious repayment to broadcasters for an
upgrade to HDTV, though some return for going digital. The outgoing National
Association of Broadcaster's Vice President, Dr. John Abel, said that
broadcasters would benefit by someone else starting the HDTV business. They
(braodcasters) would enter later when there was a potential for profit, i.e.,
receivers seeking additional programs. Cable may lead HDTV if John Malone
has it his way, but cable is not a homogeneous body either. TCI is made up
mostly of smaller cable system rather than the larger ones. The question of
whether one MSO could launch singlehandedly the next generaton of television
is daunting. Abel historically notes that broadcasting was commercially
inaugurated as a national service, moving regional as it matured. He believes
this is the right way for HDTV to start. Direct Broadcast Satellite is an
obvious national distribution method that was not availabe in North America
when the HDTV issues began. TCI has DBS facility with Primestar, so this
candidate remains of interest. Video disc and video tape may well to be the
first signal source to gain a following, but clearly insufficient to lift HD
into the mainstream.

If overcoming old standards requires strength, we need to think in terms of a
collective union of players. A cooperative "pact" between manufacturers,
program providers, signal providers, and the public would make up the
strongest union for launching HDTV. While chaos may be good for creation, it
has not proven a healthy condition for building of new markets. The
conditions for a product launch on the scale of television needs to be
industry-wide and orchestrated so as to produce widespread interest and
generate the confidence needed to illicit appropriate market response.

While the standards work moved from the chaotic to a more controlled
collaborative phase, the marketing strategies of the major players has not
kept pace. There is no consensus among manufactures that HDTV will even
happen, or if it does, to what degree. Japan's HDTV launch has been stunted
by lack of attractive programs. Europe all but abandoned HDTV due to a
failure in reaching accord with programmers, signal providers, and the
public. Woefully missing among the key players as a result of these long
trials is a winner's attitude. There is no vision being held aloft that
appears "obvious", or even hopeful for success. Waving of few hands about
quality in times of business reorganizations, uncertain jobs, and unsteady
domestic economies has appeared ephemeral at best. Yet it is hard to imagine
how NTSC is to be superceded from a body that is divided, deluded, and sapped
of strength. If that is the condition to last then the only recommendation
now should be to postpone the launch of HDTV indefinately. This is translated
by political bodies and manufacturers alike to "let the marketplace decide."
The flaw in this statement is that the ultimte marketplace has no basis upon
whihc to make an informed decision since no widespread demonstrations have
been scheduled nor encouraged.

According to the EIA and the EIA/ATV Task Force the HDTV set manufacturers
want urgently to benefit from their $5+ billion 20+ year investment.
According to the EIA/ATV task force Chairman from Panasonic, Jack Pluckham,
the television industry is quite dependant upon the refreshing that HDTV
would mean to their business. To profit from their investment they will
become focused upon the execution of a compelling shared business vision. As
Sony taught everyone with Betamax, no one company can orchestrate a product
launch, especially as large and interrelated and interdependant as a complete
television system overhaul. No one of those manufacturing companies will be
entrusted with leading the others. Too much distrust and competitive zeal
exsist for any such cooperation. There needs to be an outside led
orchestration of all the participants, with the reins to the chariot being a
powerful vision worth everyone following. You cannot launch an HDTV
programming-signal service with no assurances of sets in the market. It is
unlikely that there will be sets in the market without a firm commitment to
make accessible high quality programs in the HDTV distribution format. A lack
of consumer awareness will thwart sales, even should both programs and sets
be delievered to the market. Even with sets delivered to retailers they are
hastily returned to the manufacturers if not quickly sold to consumers.

Why bother, you ask? Things will automatically take care of themselves. Its
the natural marketplace at work. That is certainly true and these words are
written from within that natural marketplace and are a part of it. What I
want to provide here is my part-the downbeat that says we are all on the
approach together and becomming ready to make this step and we need to know
for sure that we are somehow together. Every industry publication is in
service to unity in one form or the other. It is clear that to launch
something as cumbersome as the next generation of television there is
required an intelligent approach to each part of the problem from the best
minds within the industry. Having all parts thinking about it at the
appropriate time is one form of this orchestration I hope to achieve with
this forum.

Neither the value nor the difficulty of getting off to a good start can ever
be overstated. Without focus otherwise useful energy is dissipated to the
point of being useless. For this reason I have been standing for this focus
for ten years. There are those fearing a dictatorial hand in such a
calling-one that will somehow gain control and diminish autonomy and careers
of others. There is also a general distrust by the respective players, not
only of the leader who must be at the epicenter of things, but of each other
as well. Those fears come to rest upon recognition that the orchestration of
an event need not suffer from the rigors of heavy handed formality, but
rather be within the creative and business confines of each member. To play
in an orchestra one needs a specific preparedness, an alertness to the baton,
and readiness to respond to the lead, all of which provides the reward of
sweet music as opposed to cacophony.

End Chapter 1