Dale Cripps on HDTV's Potential to Elevate Programming Quality and Home Theater Experience

I see two sides, and don't limit myself to just one coin either. I like MTV and VH-1--some of the best imagery in the world is being developed there. I love well-made movies of all kinds, sports as well. Who knows what the Adult Channel in HDTV is going to mean to someone? It is not the category of content that concerns me as much as the quality of it's telling--the way it is presented. That is the impact upon social standards I believe we can take as a given with HDTV. Whether that alone will remold our character so we get even more a payoff time will tell. But at a minimum we will enjoy more of what we already have.

Isn't it naive to think that HDTV will foster better programming? Doesn't TV pander to the lowest common denominator in order to grab the biggest audiences?
Yes, of course it does. But history has shown with every advance in communication's facility there has been an economic expansion following. Quality may be in the mind of the beholder, but every increase in technical ability means the bar is raised for those seeking new heights in the expression of life. I sincerely hope many

Dale Cripps with Dr. Fujio, the founder of the HDTV movement

But the revolution we are in is liberating of the spirit for a great many--gratefully some of the best-educated recognize the rennasiance quality of it. They are finding new strength to do things on scales of good never before possible in any other age. Of course, some try the easy way out when presented with new opportunity. They walk under the higher bar rather then training to go over it. But these people are pushed to the periphery -- no longer commanding respect for just deliverying quantity. A well-crafted motion picture in the 90s is a towering achievement as contrasted to a feature from any other era. The image on celluloid today is vastly improved. With five or more channels of digital audio the experience in a well-equipped theater is good. Does that mean every movie today is great? No. But I am still a fan of Hollywood's output. I am a fan because the telling of a good story with new tools is making for an awesome emotional and intellectual connection with the authors. I think that is going to get a lot better, and I think authors are going to get a lot better. What I have been saying for years is that HDTV will bring all of a film's potential to the home. (The subjective value of social association in a theater I leave out of this argument). When I installed surround sound--only NTSC imagery, of course--a new appreciation audio was born. I am sure obtaining the combination of the new audio and the new imagery and programming from inspired artists is a pretty good investment to make.

There is little argument that the peak viewing experience is no longer in the theater, but moving now into the home. Quality is in theatrical distribution. The bigger stadium seating is winning audience while the poorer equipped old multiplexes are losing money. A presentation will be better technically in all cases (with HDTV) than can ever hoped to be experienced in the average theater. For one, you can position yourself for perfect viewing, and perfect listening at all times in your home. That is hard to do in a theater. The three dimensions of audio, coupled with non-bobbing and weaving HDTV program material is going to heighten the appreciation of movies like nothing has ever done before it. That translates into increased demand for those movies...at the home level. That is why Hollywood must now pay particular attention to all home distribution, especially HDTV. Big big money will come with heightened demand and the ever-growing global population. Features costing $500 million will not look out of line in 25 years.

I see Hollywood studios showing some spotty understanding of this with their unusual support for the new Digital Video Disc-DVD. Hollywood never extended itself before to sell hardware--not even the hardware made by their manufacturing owners (Sony, Matsushita, Toshiba). They (Hollywood) do only that which enhances the value and return on their intellectual property rights. They see this big wave ramping up now, and want to catch it. Movie lovers will create a demand for HDTV receivers that will strain the capacity of set-makers if Hollywood puts their muscle behind it. I think the studios will wonder how to bank all the money streaming in from all the digital corners of the world. The VCR took Hollywood studios by surprise. But the future of high-quality video need not be such a surprise. The VCR and disk business has served as the training wheels for the next big move.

It is predictable that the global HDTV business will be so fantastic by the end of the first quarter of next century that Hollywood studios will see the advantage in taking a financial stake in it as the only way to secure their future position. It parallels the early stake the studios needed to take in theaters. They should have a stake in home theater as well. Talent will always go where the money is accumulating. It might not be Hollywood where that happens, though it need not be any other place. That will all depend on the Hollywood executives of today. Their decisions in late 1999 will have a major impact upon the configuration of the industry in ten years.

To remain head of the linear story telling business, Hollywood studios must be co-founders of the HDTV home theater signal distribution business. Whoever rules the future of electronic distribution in HD, rules everything else. As long as there is a way to download movies in a digital HDTV format, the studios better have a major stake in it.

A perfectly targeted HDTV network will soon have the revenue to produce their own motion pictures, and release them in the same manner as do the Hollywood studios. The program suppliers for US networks spend in excess of $1.5 million per hour to produce TV programs in the hope for profit tied to syndication. Consider what a network might look like that is spending $20 million an hour for its prime time lineup. High-cost programming will then be sold on down the line, including theaters, the VCR, cable, videodisc, DVD, etc.

OK, but don't you think overcoming the existing television services is an overwhelming task and horribly expensive?
First, HDTV is not an assault on the existing television services. It never was. A hot new cable network is far more an assault than is any price-restrained HDTV service. Because of price-pacing, HD will never violently overthrow standard television's position. At worst, it will be a graceful intrusion, then finally a welcome one. NTSC, PAL and SECAM are still entry level systems for the public. SDTV is the first entry for the digital side. HDTV is the graduation step. Every activity in home and community is a competitor to television--school homework, a night out with friends, church and civic functions, the PC, Internet, the VCR/videodisc, etc. Do TV stations try to stop school homework, game of poker, a night out just to protect themsleves? Those who lament the network declines should consider how much more there is competing for people's attention today, and then realize how well the networks have actually done. They will meet the competitive challenge as usual, and they will not have to do it with a massive ramp of HDTV. Why? Isn't HDTV going to steal viewers away from network TV? How? HDTV is too expensive to ever threaten the nets anymore than a five star hotel is a threat to Motel 6.

Later DTV receivers may come in far lower price ranges and should replace the old standards in time. At some point the big commercial broadcasters of today may seek whatever audience has grown loyal to HDTV networks, like the one I am about to propose. Dr. John Abel, former Executive Vice-president of the National Association of Broadcasters, has said to me many times that it is better that someone other than broadcasting startup the HDTV business. They (broadcaster) will come when there is a large enough installed base of receivers to warrant their investment.

Here is what I am leading up to: We need focus only upon creating a business that stands out from all the rest, and that uses superior methods to attract a subscription audience. What is essential in the beginning is to see HDTV as a super-premium that stands singularly above all all other premium services.

HDTV services are the ones aimed at the top 7% or so of the economic pyramid. There are fewer people, but they are the ones paying much more per unit of entertainment that those further down the pyramid. Once fully established, the service may elect to move down the slops of the pyramid as far as it can go without losing the bread and butter clients from above. We can launch graduated tiers of services to satisfy that ache in the corporate belly for growth, until there is a stake in all the service levels.

Good programming is expensive to produce. That is the major concern any startup should have. Unity Motion failed to take heed of this warning and stumbled badly to the point of shut down. Hardware compliments the software in this case by delivering to the home all that was intended and created by the artists. Can you imagine going to a good restaurant where only one fifth of the ingredients of the meal is served--late and cold at that? Would you pay full price for such an experience? I don't think so. Yet, every we are paying a price for movies (VCR, premium channels, PPV) which are only partially delivered, and delivered months after the author intended us to see them.The marketplace already factors in these missing piece. What we have been paying is the discounted price for "old" video released movies.

Part Three