HDTV Is the Big Wave Coming: The Commercialization Challenge of 1999

The H/DTV standard was set by the FCC December 24, 1996. After nine years of gruelling and duelling development the standard moved to the fast track for commercialization. The last quarter of 1999 is the big push--the big wave swelling, and nothing is going to stop it...whatever it is.

Make no mistake, commercialization of H/DTV is a staggering task--one which fundamentally changes the nature of broadcasting (however you define it today) while completing a major step toward the convergence of the television, the telephone, and the computer industries.

Imaginations are soaring as both groups propose doing what has never been seen nor heard before in the American home. HDTV delivers not only the most perfect theatrical experience, but comes with the full power of the computer to aid the visual and aural experiences. It is big in every way--big screen, big experience, big vision, big money, BIG RISK! Those who have contemplated its future say it will leave the consumer's breathless, and for many generations to come...providing that the transition from today's television standard can be completed.

Serious Pause

There must always be a serious pause when considering a transition from one standard to another. It is easy to forget the scale of the task. Abandoning standard television for something that is still unformed and unproven is so big a work that all but the rarest of individuals can lead the way. It is only fully comprehensible when seen as an objective for humanity that is orchestrated into life by a living visionary.

The transition demands from investors Godly patience, lionly courage, maniacal determination, and the unswerving willpower of television executives, computer executives, state and federal governments, regulatory agencies, programmers, along with every television consumer. All must act from their own turf at just the right time for what they want and need if this revolution is to be "bloodless." Without these virtues, the transition will stall and leave in unfixable shambles a once-powerful and well-operating NTSC business. This old reliable standard has long been considered the most valuable asset the American broadcasters have, or will likely ever have.

For the transition to succeed the all-important consumer must be wooed and completely won over completely with market offerings tailored to their pocketbook and lifestyles. That condition is prerequisite for the consumers doing their part, i.e., spending lots of money. To move the consumer away from the abundantly programmed NTSC standard our industries will need to exploit every bit of the potential attractions that is potential in the H/DTV technology. I point first to image quality, then service flexibility, then computer enhancements, and every permutation and combination of these features imaginable.

It is not up to the creative or technical communities to drive it. They can make anything now from their digital clay, and will keep inventing and producing until they individually are rich or exhausted. It is not dependent upon traditional signal providers to move it forward either. It cannot be the singular duty of receiver makers, nor the responsibility of the wired world to advance it either. No, the success of the transition is up to the combined powers of all working towards the same goal using a plan that will generate complete confidence that the end will be reached.

Who Is Now In The Lead?

The Grand Alliance, final developers of the FCC standard, dissolved into separate parts when the standard was handed up to the FCC. The Consumer Electronics Manufacturers Association (CEMA) has taken some of the lead on behalf of their receiver making members. But the members in that association are terrified of destroying their NTSC business--especially the profitable big screen segment--by anything they might do to create too forceful a lead. There can not be a totally focused lead from CEMA until critical mass is nearer.

Will broadcasters complete their "assigned duty" to supply H/DTV signals, and then lead the way? So far it appears they will. Huge investments have already been made by them in transmission equipment. Bits are being radiated to 30 to 40% of the nation's population today.

Cable has no inclination to take the lead, though they may be moved to follow from another's lead. They are looking for additional channel capacity much more so so than they are to the delivering of higher performing ones.

Satellite (DBS) has the same philosophy as cable. The FCC/government is hoping that with local DBS services legislated and slated that DBS will be the 500 pound gorilla competitor to a rapacious cable industry. The two satellite operators--Hughes DirecTV and Echostar are moving smartly into local DBS. You can bet they do not see local HDTV-DBS in their crystal ball, but rather they want to competitively deliver highly compressed local old standard NTSC stations. That does a great deal to perpetuate old standards, or 480p at very best.

Things have changed for broadcasters since 1987 (when they petitioned the FCC for spectrum freezing). Then they feared they would not have channel capacity to beat out a maverick DBS operator trying to gain attention with a fast moving HDTV business. Now they fear competition from multiple channel cable and DBS operators, and HDTV is more a prestigious option for local operators than it is a competitive response. The networks, however, are taking a renewed look at of what H/DTV means to them.

True 1080i or 720p HDTV has become a centerpiece strategy for the three major networks. They see it as a means for repositioning themselves--moving their audience upscale to meet new premium and high-paying advertisers. They also see HDTV as a means for rebranding themselves in an increasingly cluttered NTSC field--making them look big and important again. They must do HDTV to stand out, especially among younger (and to them) the most crucial new viewers. NBC's famous engineer, Stan Baron, said before his retirement that "doing H/DTV" is a mantra at Rockefella Center. ABC has said without reluctance that they are in it for keeps. With Panasonic as partner they will deliver NFL Monday night football and the SuperBowl in HDTV. Disney has long studied HDTV, though without a steady vision. CBS is also among those receiving financial aid from manufacturers to launch their entire prime time lineup in HDTV. Joe Flaherty, a legend from that network, has always been a champion for HDTV ssaying that it is a must if broadcasters are to survive. Fox has a strategy that favors multiplexing (480p mostly) as a competitive way to reach their younger audience, though has transmitted their first movie (Independance Day) in 720p. The independent stations are clotting together as a result of relaxed FCC ownership rules and becoming better equipped to do H/DTV. For the most part all of the stations coming under the FCC jurisdiction are funding for DTV of some kind, even if at the last minute.

If PBS Won't Do It, Who Will?

PBS has seen the light turn green and is busy raising money for HDTV. The Seattle PBS station led the way for years with seminars and conferences, and now with their own production facilities have produced some of the most attractive HDTV programs produced in this country. PBS's current slogan underscores a capital-raising campaign effectively using HDTV as the reason for large personal and institutional gifts. Alliances are forming left and right among PBS stations. PBS is clearly on their way to DTV for a variety of reason, not the least being able to serve more the educational system of the country with digital data and image streams. The payoff to the nation for PBS moving to DTV is incalcuable.

There is always take that some smaller broadcasters may find cost for going digital too great, and people say they weill bow out gracefully by remaining in analog until forced to abandon their license somewhere down the road. The Clinton Administration wants to auction the existing NTSC analog channels in 2002, and secure their return sometime in 2004. No one believes the return of it is ever going to happen. We find very gew broadcasters in this dilemma. The smaller, the more innovative, and considering their need not be on the air for many years of Moore's law, you can bet they will find a way to stay viable.

HBO was thought to be the "no brainer" for the HDTV business as long as 16 years ago. They have the programming and the right audience to receive HDTV signals. While they faltered along the way and waffled and even said some pretty discouraging things about HDTV, they came out of the closet in April of 1999 and launched East and West time HDTV movie channels using surplus transponders. They not only transfer the films themselves to HDTV, they send 5 to 6 hours of HDTV every day, but to only one affiliate--Time-Warner in NYC. Showtime is due to follow this this fall with HDTV programming.

One idea making the paranoid panic says broadcasting is fast becoming obsolete because of many new digital offerings. A recent survey showed that, if forced to choose between them, 65% of those who owned both television sets and computers would rather part with their television than their computer. Rational thinkers say this idea of broadcasting falling off the consumer's map is, well... naive. Some see the battle building between the computer and broadcasting is really a question of programming prowess. Is the web the right medium for Oprah? Does the internet offer gripping drama (other than from the wait for a connection?) and snappy comedy? Should you access the Library of Congress on TV? Broadcasting will always formulate an innovative response to outside threats with the added programmability offered by digital flexibility. Employing it, of course, would not in itself guarantee repatriation of one's viewers. But without it, that may prove impossible.

HDTV will very likely be the dominion of the existing CE manufacturers. They must invest huge sums for advancing the art of large, high grade displays. But they understand best the down and dirty fight for consumer dollars.

One thing for sure. All of us will benefit from this step forward. Some have gone so far as to suggest that the future standard of living will hang on the success or failure of H/DTV. Certainly, one will experience all standards of living with it.

Dale E. Cripps