Summary

Strategy Analytics released ten technology forecasts for the new decade, predicting cellular voice would surpass 50% of all voice traffic by 2005 and that 14.7 million households would adopt interactive digital TV in 2001 alone. The firm also forecast DVD video sales overtaking VHS and the global cellular data market reaching $450 billion by 2010.

Source document circa 2001 preserved as-is

Friday, January 5, 2001

    STRATEGY ANALYTICS CITES TOP TECHNOLOGY TRENDS FOR THE NEW DECADE

    Strategy Analytics Service Directors Offer Predictions

    Boston, January 5, 2001 -- Contemplating the new year and decade, Strategy Analytics, Inc. offers ten forecasts from its cadre of Advisory Service Directors, all globally recognized industry experts:

    1. "Cellular voice will be a commodity," says Phil Kendall, Director of Wireless Network Strategies. "Cellular's share of all voice traffic will surpass 50% as early as 2005."

    2. "In 2001, Samsung will replace Ericsson among the top three global handset manufacturers, with Nokia emerging as a leading infrastructure player," added David Kerr, Vice President Global Wireless.

    3. "The global cellular data market will reach $450 billion by 2010, with entertainment applications exceeding messaging as the dominant revenue source," asserts Cliff Raskind, Director, Wireless Internet Applications.

    4. "The 'pure-play' e-commerce business model will become an endangered species in 2001, as survivors of dot.combat fatigue hook up with traditional brick-and-mortar partners," states Internet Business Strategies Director, Donald Bellomy.

    5. "Dynamic pricing is dead," according to Bellomy. "The future of B2B applications in the new decade will be EDI with a human face, not online auctions."

    6. "In 2001, 14.7 million households will switch to interactive digital TV for the first time, bringing the worldwide audience to nearly 100 million people," foresees David Mercer, VP, Consumer Practice. "But Microsoft will struggle to establish a foothold against leading platforms such as OpenTV."

    7. "DVD video sales will overtake VHS in at least one major market; worldwide sales will reach $24 billion and Hollywood's income will soar," Mercer added.

    8. "Growth in the supply of automotive system modules to carmakers will drive acquisitions and strategic alignments in automotive electronics," announces Chris Webber, Director, Automotive Electronics Practice.

    . "Motorola will forge ahead in 2001 as the lead wireless player in telematics," continues Mr. Webber. 10. "OnStar faces a shaky start in 2001." According to Mr. Webber, "Activation rates are expected to decline and competition will intensify."

    For the analysis behind these forecasts, contact [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]; or [email protected].

    Company Background:

    Strategy Analytics, formerly BIS Strategic Decisions, provides information and insights that help competitors develop strategies in consumer electronics and media, mobile and fixed communications, e-commerce, automotive electronics, and enabling technology. Strategy Analytics delivers planning support in published and consulting formats to meet the decision support needs of clients in North America, Europe, Japan and the Far East. Contact: tel. 781.235.6550, fax 781.235.6061 E-Mail: [email protected]
    Website: http://www.strategyanalytics.com