Blu-ray Wins: A Bittersweet Celebration

I believe we are all the victors in the long run.

There may be as many as a million of us who do not agree with you, Dale. Sorry about that.

The more I think about it, the more fed up I am with all of the parties involved. I think we were conned. Big time. It's hard not to conclude, for example, that Warner Brothers hadn't decided long before Christmas to get out - but what a great way to clear out that inventory by taking advantage of all those Christmas buyers taking advantage of Toshiba's, Wal Marts and others offers!! And honestly, I'm not so sure that Toshiba didn't see the handwriting on the wall, too....and got rid of a ton of inventory before it became almost totally worthless. Paranoid? Probably but it just doesn't set right. How many businesses in this world would give anything to have a built in market of over a million customers?? No, not right.....

I will not support Sony, nor Warners, nor Disney nor any of the other partners in this fiasco.

There are already solutions that are just as good that don't cost nearly as much.

For example, I can already record hours and hours of HD movies from DishNet by adding an outboard hard drive -which I have done. It has it's drawbacks - so far you can only play back through the DVR that recorded it in the first place. (Of course, and we don't talk about this, but there are already those who have hacked the system and discovered how to download to their computers .) Which also proves once again (if we REALLY needed proof) that copy protection schemes are extremely costly to develop and futile and worthless to implement.

Just think - you can buy a 750 Gb external hard drive for as little as $169. That drive will hold well over 100 movies. That's less that $1.69 per film. Why would I want to pay $30 for a bluray disc??

And of course, there are other solutions, including the internet.

No, If I were a betting person, I'd bet that other than game playing, blu ray ultimately goes no where and will soon be passed up by other solutions - cheaper and much easier to implement. And that IS a bittersweet victory for Sony and followers.......

Jerry

Hi: I think the battle was a triumph of greed and stupidity over (really Uncommon) conman sense and we all lost. But, though I knew of the hard disk plug on my Dish box I hadn't seriously thought of it as a practically free HD library, as cheap really high capacity hard drives have quietly arrived. Great suggestion, and one less HDMI connection to worry about.

There's bound to be "sour grapes" on the part of those who opted for HD DVD. We each had a choice, one of two, or even both if you wanted to edge your bet. But the consumer can hardly be called a winner, even those who opted for Blu-ray, for the competition has been removed and we all know how business reacts when there's no competition to contend with. I chose Blu-ray but I would wait and see what the "victory" brings.

I respect the opinions of everyone on this forum but, holy cow guys, get a grip. It

I think, Henry, that a high percentage of the bluray advocates are interested in things other than movies. No, maybe I should fairly say, in addition to movies. Those of us who so foolishly invested in HD DVD players were interested in just one thing - MOVIES. No one can dispute that becuz that's all they'll do - play movies.

They couldn't care less if the disc holding their movie was 50 Gb or 30 or 500. They got all kinds of extras that you guys mostly didn't get despite their lowly disc being only capable of holding 30 gigs. They're mostly not "techies" - not interested in having to hook their movie player to the Internet to download some new software to make it work with the latest releases. They wanted a good, reliable player capable of HD quality. And they got it.

As to downloads, I wouldn't fool with the internet at the moment either. But using my DishNet DVR to record and save HD content on external drives isn't one of those things you have to sit around waiting for. Well, I spose you might - but, you pick the content you want to record, tell the DVR and it does it for you - while you're at work, or sleeping or just watching it live. You do tie up TV time but not computer time.

Jerry

As President Clinton was often mocked for saying, "I feel your pain." But the purpose of this article was not to further poison the drinking fountain but rather to stitch together the two opposing sides into a conciliatory flag. I want to fly this flag over the benefits we all get from the marvel of high-definition DVD. It seems to me counter productive to rage at a particular company when big companies, the type you point to, are constantly changing manpower and directions. Both Shane and I were shockingly surprised at the new open minded and collaborative attitude we found at the CES Sony booth this year. I attribute it to the strong influence of Sir Howard Stringer, who simply understands the nuances of the Western mind, something that had escaped the old Shogun mentality of the previous leadership in many a Japanese company. But even if you hated the strategies which the rigors of capitalism impose and believed the blogger lies written to inflame you, why not calm yourself with a convenient, transportable little disk that can give you an endless amount of down time enjoyment? Why rage against the windmills? Cervantes gave us that lesson. Will your hatred for Sony (or whom-so-ever you feel wronged the world) lead to your examining every electronic device you use to insure it is "Sony-free" and has no Sony components or licenses? For what it is worth I recommend that you reconcile your differences with as much of the world as you can and enjoy your life as conflict free as you can make it. I am presently staying with my dying mother at her assisted living quarters. I can assure you that living close to death will re-orient your priorities and make such matters as this DVD strife look very trivial against any scale monitoring human problems. You who feel like Jerry reconcile your differences and then give yourself a pat on the back for making your own life better then those dirty rotten scoundrels did by driving us all so damn crazy with formats, formats, formats. _Dale Cripps

If I hear one more HD DVD fanboy say "but there's no more competition" I'll just have to scream.

How can there NOT be competition when we have so many hardware manufacturers? You don't think Panasonic, Sony, Samsung, LG, etc. will compete for blu-ray players? Of COURSE THEY WILL - it's what they do. And that will bring prices down as reasonably as possible. That does not mean we'll see $100 giveaways because they can't afford to do that. But then neither could Toshiba (long term).

And Jerry himself just mentioned HD Satellite - how is that not competition? There wasn't any competition (to speak of) for standard DVDs yet I can buy a player for $19.

Get off the lack of competition bandwagon and just admit that you're either miffed that you lost your investment or you simply don't like the Blu-Ray technology or, the more likely scenario - you just hate Sony. Nothing wrong with any of those positions - just don't try to create reasons that don't exist.

I get DirecTv HD content and my sister who lives 1 mile away gets Comcast HD content. We both agree---NEITHER DirecTv or Comcast HD programs look anywhere near as good as Toshiba HD or Blu Ray. And besides not looking as good, when played through a good surround system they definitely don't sound anywhere near as good.
If you are lucky enough to get reception of a movie in 5.1, it is always in a "lossy" format. There are no great audio codecs in either service, or for that matter on downloads.

Of course, I imagine that most people don't give a rats behind as long as they "think" they are getting great cutting edge performance. Just as most people don't download Apple iTunes in their lossless format I expect the same from people "that just want to watch a movie". I already know quite a few people in my community that have a very good HDTV, but don't even use a surround system. And most of those that do have a surround system have one that costs far less than their HDTV and doesn't do credit to the movie.

I will definitely be getting a new Blu Ray player once format 2.0 is released and a good player is available. I love watching good movies in pristine condition and with a great score and soundtrack.

Greg

First of all, let me acknowledge that this poor old horse has been beat mercilessly to death. I promise all, foremost myself, that I will never pen another word about BD vs. HD-DVD again

I have to disagree. The player prices will come down for two distinct reasons. One, many manufacturers will be competing now for market share. Two, it is in the nature of technology that once the initial investment in technology is amortized, the race begins to find cheaper and better ways to manufacture the product. There is nothing about this technology to suggest Blu-ray will be an exception.

Also I disagree with the notion that somehow the players in this race resorted to unfair competition. This is the normal way the market works, and, in my view, this time it did work, unlike the Beta versus VHS wars in which the inferior product won.

But I enthusiastically agree with the idea that the public needs to educate themselves to the possibilities of the format. Surround Sound is an important ingredient of the immersive HD experience and the industry has done a great job of making the new standards backwards compatible so that long-time users like myself don't have to throw away their expensive Dolby receivers. And, by the way, don't forget the sub-woofers including the rear one. When that hand grenade explodes behind you, you want to feel the punch in your back.

So, it's all good. Time to sit back and enjoy!

Henry

Sorry Dale, you do not feel our pain; you are not even close. I think I can speak for most of us in saying that we would have no pain if HD DVD simply lost to free market competition. Everyone benefits from free market competition, but if you think what happened to HD DVD is "free market competition" then you have really been drinking Bush's kool aid. What happened was a conspiracy to restrain trade (in the words of the Sherman Antitrust Act), and at an earlier time the Justice Department would have stepped in. When hundreds of millions of dollars get passed under the table in order to prevent consumers from being able to choose the best deal for them, that's Tony Soprano capitalism. That "street fight" that's so upset you is what true competition is all about. And please stop insulting us by lecturing us on the virtues of acceptance and equanimity, we all should be angry. It doesn't matter which technology you personally like better, BR supporters got screwed over almost as much as HD DVD. You will be forever denied the lower disc prices that format competition would have produced (HD disc media itself may fail because BR cannot now price to reach the mass market). But most important, you should be angry at being treated like sheep -- you were denied your right to choose -- you were denied the benefits of free market competition that are supposedly guaranteed to you by our laws. You, of all people, who have fought and worked so hard and so long to bring the benefits of HDTV to the market should be the most incensed.

Phil

by Andre "DVDBack23" Yoskowitz -- published in AfterDawn.com


Toshiba CEO Atsutoshi Nishida has finally talked out about his company's decision to drop HD DVD and went as far as to say that the format did not "stand a chance" following Warner's decision to drop the format for Blu-ray.

Citing the Warner decision, Nishida said that the format would have only had 20% of the software market share and that Warner's decision sealed the format war's fate.

"One has to take calculated risks in business, but it's also important to switch gears immediately if you think your decision was wrong," explained Nishida. "We were doing this to win, and if we weren't going to win then we had to pull out, especially since consumers were already asking for a single standard."

In the wake of the end of the HD format war, Toshiba said it would focus more on upconverting standard-def DVD players and PCs as well as HD digital downloads.

"We've been developing technologies in area already, but now that we don't have the HD DVD business, I want to put even more energy into that,"added Nishida.

uhh....BD player prices won't come down - tag, you're it.

Let's see. Players announced/shipped since the "war" ended, 1/4/2008

Denon 3800..............$1,999
Denon 2500..............$999
Pioneer BDP94..........$999
Panasonic 30K..........$499
Sony S2000ES..........$1,200
Goldmund.................$16,900

Average Selling Price................................$3,766 and change.
......O.K., throw out the Goldmund.

Adjusted Average Selling price................$1,139.20

I'm pretty sure that's north of what we saw during WWIII.

Henry, you can't even build a decent NTSC player for $300. The chipset in anybody's HD player is more expensive. With any luck and a little help from volume, I hope that we can see a GOOD BD player in the $500 range by Christmas.

A pox on both their houses. They both deserved to lose, actually. How in the world did anyone think the studios were going to support both technologies. Somebody had to lose, nobody knew which side would win, so they should have collaborated. I feel sorry for the employees who will be fired thanks to their idiot executives (who will undoubtedly walk off with huge golden parachutes for being so...what?). Apple TV seem pretty attractive at this point.

Terry, let me give you an actual list for people who work for a living:

Samsung BD-P1400 1080p Blu-Ray Disc Player $357.14
Sony BDP-S300 1080p Blu-ray Disc Player $389.99
Sharp Aquos BDHP20U 1080p Blu-Ray Disc Player $349.98
Panasonic DMP-BD30K 1080p Blu-Ray Disc Player $749.99

to name a few. And this is just the beginning. I have some experience developing technology and I know many, if not all, of these companies are working like mad to make more competitive units. Now that the standard is known, the rest is fairly straightforward. Your list is strictly for snobs who have more money than brains.

Henry

Henry (can I call you Hank?)

Henry, consider the case of Denon who pretty much own the DVD player/receiver space. They have done so based on a reputation for quality, performance and the sheer operational scale that allows them to offer something for everyone.
On the NTSC side, which has had plenty of time to sort out, they offer 10 players priced from $169 to $3,500. Why would their first foray into HDland be two players over $1,000? Do you really think their strategy to capture market share is to go after "snobs" first? Ditto for the entire Pioneer Elite line, one of the most successful in CE history. Is it possible that these guys have built their success based on delivering superior images or do you think they count on a sustained ability to dupe snobs?

Dale,

What is it with your blind acceptance of industry self-serving statements? Do you actually believe what you quoted is a retort to my comment? Do you want me to explain to you just how meaningless the statement about consumer preference is?

Phil

To wit: Six months ago, Ken Graffeo, HD DVD Promotions Group co-chair and Universal Studios strategic marketing executive VP, had this to say about consumer preferences:

The lower cost of HD DVD duplication has made it easer for independent film producers to offer their titles in the high-definition format, Gaffeo said.

Almost all new formats of consumer electronics start off with high prices; from computers, HDTV's, VHS, DVD players, Navigational devices, etc. Denon's first foray into the standard DVD market many years ago didn't have any cheap players. It is zero suprise they don't have cheap players available yet in the new Blu Ray format, which was late to the party in getting their complete formats in order, not to mention the delay caused by the major studios mostly wanting a more hack-proof copyright system. The studios never learn that all these protocols are ultimately hackable. Sure, Toshiba's was hacked first, but even Blu Ray was later hacked.

The only reason Toshiba was charging cheap prices for their HD players was to get market share against the Blu Ray group (sounds like Blue Man Group---:-) sorry. Sony mostly used their PS3 to garner market share for both Blu Ray and gaming at a loss, since they would be assured of making a lot of money on the games regardless. None of the Blu Ray manufacturers were interested in getting into a "who can be cheapest" pissing match with Toshiba. Their strategy was significantly differet from Toshiba's. Toshiba isn't a studio (like Sony) and doesn't have a gaming platform (like Sony). They also were never able to convince Microsoft to make a gaming platform centered around their HD player. Microsoft's strategy was centered on price to garner market share and never took the necessary step to make an HD machine that was integral to their gaming platform. Their HD player was just an add-on device that was never accepted to a large degree by their consumers.


Both Toshiba and Sony's consortium used money to cement studio relationships and most of these contracts had fail safe clauses if they ended up with the format that wasn't successful in the marketplace. We all know what ultimately happened.

I'm sure if Blu Ray had not existed, Toshiba's HD player prices would have been drastically higher.

Greg

Terry,

Remember your list was to bolster the argument that HD players were going up because Blu-ray was the winner, but it's hardly fair to use your list as proof. There has always been a market for expensive electronics whose increased performance may or may not be in the imagination of the user.

What I'm saying is that the manufacturing cost always goes down with a new mass-produced piece of technology. But the most expensive category has always been the hand-made items explicitly made for people with large disposable incomes, but made in much smaller numbers and therefore will have a negligible effect on the average price of a particular category of electronics.

Henry (not Hank)

Henry, I actually want to agree with you on several points - in fact, pretty much everything you said in your last post. Certainly, prices will (eventually) drop with volume - and, no, it wasn't fair to just include the expensive picks, although those have been what have made up the recent announcements - and, yes, ALL of the potential customers for the $17,000 player are probably snobs. I was just trying to make two points which I'll reiterate here, and try to do a better job.

1. I wasn't saying prices would go up JUST BECAUSE BD won the war. I was pointing out that ALL their players were heavily subsidized and now that's gone. Absent the extreme pressure to get the next generation to the street at can't-say-no prices, we will start to see more deliberate releases of higher quality, fully featured BD players at prices that fairly reflect those qualities plus a reasonable margin for the manufacturer. Nothing wrong with that, after all, we want them to stay viable as suppliers to service this stuff.

2. Since we are more familiar with the NTSC (DVD) world, I'll use that arena to make the second point. There are very defenseable reasons why Denon has 10 DVD player offerings at a variety of price points. Yes, the $3,500 product is the "Flagship" and the production runs are bound to be shorter than the mainstream boxes, but having installed most of those models, I can promise (all of) you there several visable differences in the image going out the back. The CE world is so competitive, we pretty much get what we pay for, within reason. The $700 box HAS TO look better than the $500 box or one of those SKUs would never hit the dealer's shelves.

Henry, I think on most of this stuff, we are in violent agreement.............

Caveat Emptor!

After 26 years my experience says that price reflects only a manufacturers cost, what a manufacturer thinks the market will bear, a way to differentiate feature sets for the low, mid and high end markets and finally the level of service support you will receive. The other issue is feature set. Beyond bells and whistles that provide a function you desire, an objective review is required to determine if claimed performance features or upper tier performance products are actually enhancing performance. If they are then the reviewer needs to put the performance gained in context with the increase in price.

As a product reviewer and ISF calibrator, price and brand is clearly not a direct reflection of performance. What a manufacturer gets right one year they may bomb on the next. The only way to really know what you are getting is to find a reviewer that covers objective performance using video test patterns and audio test signals, test equipment and calibration equipment along with a publisher that will support a truthful response without innuendo. That is a very tough nut to crack when researching internet sites and magazines for a product!

One example that has stuck with me for years; when I bought my first HDTV I had some issues and the store upgraded me to the new and improved model. It wasn

Terry, you're right, there has been some heavy subsidizing going on, and it's no surprise Sony is the prime example. You have to offer cheap razors if you want to sell a lot of razor blades.

From my viewpoint, this is all good because it pushes technology forward and employs a lot of scientists and engineers who are now struggling frantically to find better ways to store and use information in the BD format.

Henry

Dale,

While many HD DVD supporters/investors will vilify anything you say regarding the end of the format "dispute", I for one would like to say "Thank you" for spending the time I believe you put into that opening post. I think it was very tastefully put and offered appreciation for both formats and put things pretty much in perspective.

Nice job, I wish others would just drop the constant bickering.

AaronS

Dale,

What is it with your blind acceptance of industry self-serving statements? Do you actually believe what you quoted is a retort to my comment? Do you want me to explain to you just how meaningless the statement about consumer preference is?

Phil

To wit: Six months ago, Ken Graffeo, HD DVD Promotions Group co-chair and Universal Studios strategic marketing executive VP, had this to say about consumer preferences:

The lower cost of HD DVD duplication has made it easer for independent film producers to offer their titles in the high-definition format, Gaffeo said.

"After 26 years my experience says that price reflects only a manufacturers cost, what a manufacturer thinks the market will bear, a way to differentiate feature sets for the low, mid and high end markets and finally the level of service support you will receive. The other issue is feature set. Beyond bells and whistles that provide a function you desire, an objective review is required to determine if claimed performance features or upper tier performance products are actually enhancing performance. If they are then the reviewer needs to put the performance gained in context with the increase in price. "

What you say is definitely true in a stable marketplace, but it certainly isn't what occured in the HD/Blu Ray battle. Toshiba and Sony were definitely subsidizing their players (along with studios) to gain a foothold in the marketplace.

Now, as far as standard dvd players, receivers, and other more mature consumer electronics--what you say is absolutely true. If Blu Ray eventually gets significant consumer acceptance and purchases it will be like any other consumer electronics product.

Greg

That was provided to counter balance Terry's statement...

The CE world is so competitive, we pretty much get what we pay for, within reason. The $700 box HAS TO look better than the $500 box or one of those SKUs would never hit the dealer's shelves.

... go file your stupid lawsuit.

How interesting, that is the same argument that Bush is using to get Congress to sanction continued violations of our laws and Constitution -- it's only lawyers out to make money who are objecting. That is outrageous. Your inability, or unwillingness, to see how my citing of an HD DVD executive making the opposite argument of the HD DVD executive's argument cited by Dale, refutes his citation, is outrageous. A cabal of industrialists have, flouting our laws, conspired together to deny all of us our right to choose in a free market. And what do I hear from you, Aaron and Dale -- that is the way the cookie crumbles -- it's the 'merican way -- get over it. That's outrageous. Your lack of outrage is outrageous.

36 years ago I, a registered Democrat, was appointed chief consumer advocate of a Midwestern state by its Republican governor, because he felt that I was the best man to enforce the laws. Today that would be unheard-of. Back then the United States was the unchallenged world leader in wealth, health, equity and ordered liberty under our mutual respect of the laws. Today our health policy is determined by the pharmaceutical companies, our energy policy by the oil companies. Today we are the laughing stock, or worse, of the developed world. Our standard of living is falling, we can no longer afford health care, we now torture, our Constitution and laws, which protected us for generations, go flouted and unenforced. And the biggest reason why is because those who should be outraged are unable, or unwilling, to understand what is happening to us. And those of us who say stop -- look -- listen -- understand -- get angry -- are personally attacked, and told -- that's the way the cookie crumbles -- it's the 'merican way -- get over it -- you lawyers are just trying to foment litigation. It's outrageous.

Phil

ps: I am known in some legal circles as: "Phil, tell us how you really feel, Malter."

Well said,Phil. The lack of outrage, even on some of the smaller legislative decisions which infringe on personal rights, has long been something that sticks in my craw. (Smoking bans in bars,for example. Even though I'm a non-smoker, the false claims of "public health" reasons to add a law that only takes away income and infringes on personal freedom should have had people up in arms!) I guess recognizing and seeing how the industry handled competition (from retailers on up) is one of the reasons (but not the only one) that I won't be getting a BR player anytime soon.

Your inability, or unwillingness, to see how my citing of an HD DVD executive making the opposite argument of the HD DVD executive's argument cited by Dale, refutes his citation, is outrageous.

Two contradicting statements from the same camp; it's all marketing Phil or they are just very confused...

What I don't understand is you have stated that both camps were doing under handed things to win, in essence trying to buy victory. How can you be surprised that a studio was paid off (claimed by the conspirators)? Isn't that just part and parcel of the under handed process of buying victory? It's as if doing so crossed some line of yours that subsidizing product didn't besides other claims. Aren't both forms illegal in your book? You keep wanting to make a stand for justice due to one event when justice was never served prior to that event according to you.

I am not saying it is right but it is what it is and while you go championing the underdog and lament higher prices due to the win I sure hope you agree that Toshiba would have no problem at all in running the victory lap instead along with higher prices. In the end your brand of justice will not get served.

Ultimately I guess I am saying you should apply your outrage and abilities to those more deserving...

All that leaves you with is a hypothetical that both formats could have survived side by side in volume and the benefits you espouse. It's not as if you can prove it anymore than those who think a single format now has a clear road to volume and lower prices (longterm). The difference is far more people believe in the single format solution putting your camp in the minority. It's going to take a few years to see who was right.