The Blu-ray Disc victory in its recent format war with HD-DVD will propel this technology into 29.4 million homes worldwide by the end of 2008, according to the latest research published by the Strategy Analytics Connected Home Devices service. According to, "Blu-ray Devices: Forecasting Sales and Ownership," Sony's PS3 games console will continue to drive the Blu-ray market until 2009, after which stand-alone Blu-ray players will become the dominant segment. By 2012 more than...
With the prediction that over 29 million Blu-Ray Players will be sold this year I wonder how many people know that if they don't have an HDMI connection that supports HDCP will be watching HDTV at less than HDTV quality.
I'm not surprised by Sony's success with the PS3. For those who have any interest in video games, I'd recommend going with the PS3 instead of waiting for a stand-alone Blu-ray player. Even if you have no interest in games, you can use the PS3 to download HD free movie trailers and Sony plans to add downloadable complete movies (for a price of course) soon. If you are a gamer you can effortlessly download game demos for free to try before you buy. If you already have an Internet-connected computer you can easily add a wi-fi link available from your Internet provider, handy if your HD set is in another room from your computer. If you use a USB music device such as an iPod, you can plug it into the PS3's USB port and play your tunes through your sound system.
I should add that I have no connection with Sony. This is just a product I'm really impressed with.
With the prediction that over 29 million Blu-Ray Players will be sold this year I wonder how many people know that if they don't have an HDMI connection that supports HDCP will be watching HDTV at less than HDTV quality.
I wonder how many people know that this isn't true? I get 1080i Blu-Ray movies on my PS3 over component video. Games, too. The only thing I don't get in HD over component is upconverted standard DVDs. But they were never HD to begin with and my TV is native 480p AND 1080i so it's not a problem.
I don't see them turning on the down-res flag anytime soon. There are too many component video only TVs out there.
This is a topic I'd like to see explained on this forum because it leaves me confused. I thought HDCP would be used to authenticate encrypted media which presumably would block unauthorized Blu-ray discs for copyright protection purposes. I don't see what that has to do with HDMI or why you'd want to block it at the display end.
Also Carnegie Mellon has delivered a paper that says HDCP is fundamentally flawed anyway. What the heck is going on?
Many of the co-workers that I am working with that were thinking of getting a HD disc system now are afraid to spend the money on a new player,, fear of the system not being around in the future and many of these are older people that do not want a game machine to watch a movie.... And from many reports that I have read else where now that the "War was won by Blu" the sales of player have flattened out....??? So unless the research company really think that people will use their tax relief funds to purchase a movie player I don't see that many more machines being sold.. unless there is a big price drop!
So I don't see 29million machines being sold over the next nine (or less) months... this is over 3.2million per month....
Well, I'm an "older" person and I have three game machines including the PS3 hooked into my 50 " HD set. (Currently playing "Uncharted: Drakes Fortune" for the PS3 ) The games on the PS3 are simply amazing: HD with brilliant detailed color graphics and multichannel surround sound.
In my humble opinion, I think you're dead wrong about the PS3. The problem with the PS3 is its "multi-core" nature, which means that it's a parallel processor capable of doing 7 parallel tasks at once
I thought HDCP would be used to authenticate encrypted media which presumably would block unauthorized Blu-ray discs for copyright protection purposes. I don't see what that has to do with HDMI or why you'd want to block it at the display end.
HDMI is a digital video connection secured by HDCP determined by the source. If HDCP is required, nearly all the time, it will only work when you connect a display to the source and proper handshaking occurs. Displays are a safe destination because they do not record signals.
Ever hear of Netflix or Blockbuster? Especially with the high cost of BD discs. I know I'm renting most of the discs that I'm watching and only buying a few really good action movies like Live Free or Die Hard.
Sony is scared. They have already lost 50% more money on BR than Toshiba lost on HD DVD, and sales are flat -- at best. Believe it or not, HD DVD disc sales have been improving against BR every month this year-- February was better than January and March better than February. To offset HD DVDs lower-cost, Sony had been subsidizing BR disc costs $3/disc in 2007 and it looks like they will be increasing it this year notwithstanding HD DVD's demise. From the looks of the recent press releases (such as the subject of this discussion) they are even increasing their cash payments for support more than they did when Toshiba was still in the fray... amazing.
Doesn't anyone read articles besides just headlines?
First, the '08 sales predicted are 18.8 million.
Second, that's worldwide sales, not just US.
The 29 million is worldwide total Blu-ray homes at the end of '08.
To offset HD DVDs lower-cost, Sony had been subsidizing BR disc costs $3/disc in 2007 and it looks like they will be increasing it this year notwithstanding HD DVD's demise. From the looks of the recent press releases (such as the subject of this discussion) they are even increasing their cash payments for support more then they did when Toshiba was still in the fray... amazing.
Increasing subsidies? Catalog BR titles that were $19.99 at Fry's when HD DVD was around are now $22.99. First Look's first HD DVD title was $19.99. When they debuted on Blu, they priced both the HD DVD and the Blu-Ray at $24.99--no subsidies as they are not a major studio. The porn companies complained not only about replication/authoring costs but lack of replication facilities. They charge so much per disc (usually around $50) that the production costs don't quite matter as much.
Back on topic--this is an interesting article showing that the Trojan horse PS3 continues to show up in homes counting to the Blu-Ray installed base but doesn't show people buying discs. The format war is over. The BDA needs to do more than make press announcements to take Blu-Ray to the next level.
Many of the co-workers that I am working with that were thinking of getting a HD disc system now are afraid to spend the money on a new player,, fear of the system not being around in the future and many of these are older people that do not want a game machine to watch a movie....
So I don't see 29million machines being sold over the next nine (or less) months... this is over 3.2million per month....
I agree 100%. I have yet to meet anyone that is thinking of or looking forward to getting a BR player. Most already have more HD options/movies available than they have time to watch! With a flattening economy, spending $400.00 on a player that only has maybe one or two titles in HD (out of an average of 20 DVD releases) per week is no incentive. Also, many people have a bad taste in their mouth from how the eliminationof HD-DVD was handled. (Even if they didn't own aplayer!) The article is simply wishful thinking. The industry shot themselves in the foot as far as mass adoption is concerned.
The industry shot themselves in the foot as far as mass adoption is concerned.
They did that when they failed to agree on a single format. DVD sales flourished even with competition from cable TV, but it didn't happen overnight.
Prices will come down - they always do. And sales will improve. But anyone who thinks it will happen overnight is dreaming. And anyone who thinks the same thing would not have happened if HD DVD had won is also dreaming. Too much competition from upconverting DVD players and cheaper DVDs.
The industry shot themselves in the foot as far as mass adoption is concerned.
They did that when they failed to agree on a single format. DVD sales flourished even with competition from cable TV, but it didn't happen overnight.
Prices will come down - they always do. And sales will improve. But anyone who thinks it will happen overnight is dreaming. And anyone who thinks the same thing would not have happened if HD DVD had won is also dreaming. Too much competition from upconverting DVD players and cheaper DVDs.
I disagree. I don't feel it's a single-format issue. As it now stands, they went with a more expensive, profile-challenged (for now) option. The cable TV comparison isn't really valid either as DVD provided a better PQ than cable offered at that time. But HD offerings on cable offers much more content, including indies, classics, and forteign films in HD. And downloads (whatever the pros and cons) is yet another option (albeit still in birth-stages).
The only price drop I'd expect are on players that are not Profile 2.0. Newer players will still be $400 - $500. But even if those dropped by $100.00, that is still a couple hundred more than an equivalent HD-DVD player would have cost. BR just offers too little for too much. Yes, sales will improve...but not to the level that the article indicates. Niche format at best.
that is still a couple hundred more than an equivalent HD-DVD player would have cost.
Here we go again. You can't compare Toshiba HD-DVD player prices with anything - they were subsidized to win the war. If HD DVD had won we'd still be looking at $400 players, or close to that.
Early DVD players were $1,000. Now they're $20. There is absolutely no reason to believe that BD won't see similar progress. If anything the competition from HDTV and downloads should hasten the price drops.
Take a look at the Netflix on-line catalog for Blu-ray discs. Blu-ray versions obviously started with the most visually spectacular blockbuster movies, but they're rapidly filling in the blanks. For example I wanted to see two old movies in HD, "Road Warrior" (1981) and "Robocop" (1983)and they were there in Blu-ray. "Road Warror," was especially impressive in HD. It was like watching a whole new movie.
You should also take a look at recent press about sales of the PS3 which show a 120% increase in sales over the last year.
some of the claims made in this post are incorrect. Please refer to Richards post to clear the air - editor
HDMI (High Definition Multimedia Interface) and HDCP (High-bandwidth Digital Content Protection) are two seperate things. HDCP is an industry-wide copy protection scheme that prevents the potential interception of digital data between the source, such as a Blu-Ray Player and the display which has an HDCP compliant display or monitor.
HDMI plays directly into this discussion because, as I understand, it is the connector of choice for the "New" HD-ready consumer products. The HDMI connector is multi-purpose, enabling the transport of digital video, audio and control protocols.
To the consumer it means everything can be sent down the cable from the HD DVD player to the display. The digital signal can be converted from HDMI to DVI with a simple adapter. But when you are dealing with an HDCP signal the signal coming down the cable to the monitor or display must "Shake Hands" with each other. Therefore, if any device in the signal path is non-compliant a 1920 x 1080 HDTV picture will not be displayed.
Component video such as Y, Pb and Pr, does not suport the HDCP Hand Shake so what you get, As I understand, is a 960x540 picture so that the image is less than adequate for HD copying.
It directly impacts those HDTVs that only have a DVI or an HDMI input but with no HDCP circuitry. That's the type of HDTV I have and I'm sure many others, at this time, have as well.
As an example, I don't think anyone at this time (March 2008) has a digital projector that can project an HDTV image from a Blu-Ray Player onto the screen because of this HDCP protocal requirement. At least not on any projector I know of yet. I'm sure the consumer electronics manufacturers are addressing this problem.
I don't dispute what you're saying but, if true, it's a dangerous sea change from the concept of copy protection. It means that not only can you not copy, you cannot display material that does not conform to HDCP protocol. Rather than protecting the rights of people who create content, it attacks people who would like to use their personal display to view any content. This sounds like the true purpose of HDCP is to extort revenue by creating a HDTV toll booth.
Combining this with Carnegie Mellon's contention that HDCP is not adequate for copy protection, and it would seem that HDCP is a disaster for all parties. Evidently HDCP punishes the innocent while giving a free rein to the guilty.
Take a look at the Netflix on-line catalog for Blu-ray discs. Blu-ray versions obviously started with the most visually spectacular blockbuster movies, but they're rapidly filling in the blanks. For example I wanted to see two old movies in HD, "Road Warrior" (1981) and "Robocop" (1983)and they were there in Blu-ray. "Road Warror," was especially impressive in HD. It was like watching a whole new movie.
You should also take a look at recent press about sales of the PS3 which show a 120% increase in sales over the last year.
If BR can only rely on the game console, it's still a niche format. And I've seen ROAD WARRIOR and ROBOCOP in HD as well. Didn't need Netflix or a disc for that. In addition, I've also seen MAD MAX, MAD MAX III, ROBO II, and ROBO III in HD. See if those are on BR.
that is still a couple hundred more than an equivalent HD-DVD player would have cost.
Here we go again. You can't compare Toshiba HD-DVD player prices with anything - they were subsidized to win the war. If HD DVD had won we'd still be looking at $400 players, or close to that.
Early DVD players were $1,000. Now they're $20. There is absolutely no reason to believe that BD won't see similar progress. If anything the competition from HDTV and downloads should hasten the price drops.
We'll see. And as far as players were concerned, I wasn't referring to the $99 sales, etc. I am referring to the standard pricing at retailstores (including the store where I worked. They were always priced anywhere from $100 - $200 less than BR. For people who don't own 1080p sets, the A3s at $250 was a better intro to HDM than a $400 BR player. (Not even taking into account sale prices.) Now...it's "bye-bye" to the masses.
P.S. I know 3 people who've purchased HD sets in the past month. Not a single one of them has any intention of getting a BR player. They're quite thrilled with the HD options and costs provided by satellite or cable. I expect most of the general public feels the same.
Right now Blu-ray does rely on the PS3, but 63 percent of the US population now plays video games, hardly a niche market. See first link below. And yes, there are movies still not available on Blu-ray, but my experience with Netflix shows that the number of movies not available is shrinking dramatically every day, what you would expect given the recent winning of the HD war with HD DVD. Besides, Netflix has announced it's phasing out HD DVD and stocking Blu-ray. See second link.
Henry, you're missing the point. It's not about what's on BR or HD-DVD, it's about content (or more precisely, lack of it) that is available on them. The films I mentioned were not on either format! I have HD movies archived that people are constantly wondering "When will there be a BR of....? I won't need BR to see, say, DARK KNIGHT for example...because it will be available in HD OnDemand the same day it appears on DVD. The content and release schedules of BR films just isn't there for most people.
Yes, people who already play video games will buy PS3...but the entire 63% won't necessarily be using them for movies either. Believe it or not, there are many who could care less about movies. And some only want to play the games. So I'm not impressed by how many PS3s are sold because the majority of those sales are not necessarily for BR (though it's certainly a nice option).
Well, I guess I'm confused. Some of the movies you listed I want to be available too, so we have solidarity there. But you realize that eventually NO new movies will be released on HD DVD and if there are no plans to realize the movies you mentioned on HD DVD now, it's very unlikely they ever will be. That's not true for Blu-ray.
To be fair, the 63 percent number I mentioned applies to all three consoles, so that's not a good measure of how many people are watching Blu-ray. I was arguing that video games have become a staple of American life, so we shouldn't discount Sony's selection of Blu-ray as a standard for games. But we do have direct numbers. According to High-Def Digest, about 9 million Blu-ray movies have been sold since mid-2006. While it was once true that some studios were releasing on DVD only because they didn't know if Blu-ray was going to take off, that is no longer true according to Tom Adams of "Adams Media Research." See link below.
the signal coming down the cable to the monitor or display must "Shake Hands" with each other. Therefore, if any device in the signal path is non-compliant a 1920 x 1080 HDTV picture will not be displayed.
That relates to SD DVD being limited to 480p output and the lack of 1080p output with Blu-ray.
Component video such as Y, Pb and Pr, does not suport the HDCP Hand Shake so what you get, As I understand, is a 960x540 picture so that the image is less than adequate for HD copying.
You are referring to the image restraint token which has not been used as of this time. On top of that, if it is used, then Blu-ray packaging is supposed to clearly denote that.
At this time you can get up to 1080i output from Blu-ray via analog component but with SD DVD it will be limited to 480p.
As an example, I don't think anyone at this time (March 2008) has a digital projector that can project an HDTV image from a Blu-Ray Player onto the screen because of this HDCP protocal requirement. At least not on any projector I know of yet. I'm sure the consumer electronics manufacturers are addressing this problem.
100% incorrect. All kinds of projectors and one piece displays support 1080p60 or the most important one for Blu-ray, 1080p24.
Bottom line for those seeking maximum performance with Blu-ray is you have to be 100% HDMI compliant for both video and audio.
At this time you can get up to 1080i output from Blu-ray via analog component but with SD DVD it will be limited to 480p.
I can verify that - I'm doing it right now. I get 1080i BD movies, games and downloadable content over component on my PS3, but I only get 480p for standard DVDs.
As Richard also pointed out, HDMI supports all resolutions whether you have HDCP or not. And while the capability exists to limit the resolution over analog component video - it's not currently being used. I get full 1080i (my display doesn't do 720p so it's converted to 1080i) on all DirecTV HD channels over component.
IF they ever turn on the image restraint token on individual broadcasts then that would limit non-HDCP outputs to 480p but that hasn't happened yet and given the number of component only displays still in use it's not likely to happen soon, if ever. The whole idea is that you can't just record the digital HDMI output from a BD disc or broadcast show and save it for reproduction or other illegal uses. A device with a HDMI input must be authorized or it won't work.
hdtvjim - if you're using component video then it's 100% analog. There is no digital signal to process or down-res. The only control is by the sending device (DirecTV receiver, PS3, DVD player, etc.) but that has nothing to do with HDCP.
We'll see. And as far as players were concerned, I wasn't referring to the $99 sales, etc. I am referring to the standard pricing at retailstores (including the store where I worked. They were always priced anywhere from $100 - $200 less than BR. For people who don't own 1080p sets, the A3s at $250 was a better intro to HDM than a $400 BR player.
I was also referring to the $250 sets. Those, too, were being subsidized by Toshiba. The problem is we don't have any non-subsidized HD DVD players for comparison. At least with BD players we had LG and/or Samsung selling them, not just Sony.
A Samsung BD player is $400. A combo player is $800. That suggests to me that the true cost of a HD DVD player is closer to $400 than $250.
If HD DVD had won the war the price would have gone up on those, too. I'm sure HD DVD is somewhat cheaper, but not hundreds cheaper. It's all moot now anyway.
The reason BD players haven't dropped much is simple: no commitment by all mfrs and no significant volume outside of the PS3 due to the uncertainty over the format's future. Now that it's settled I expect all major mfrs to have BD players out within a year (including Toshiba) and that will cause a slow but steady price drop as the mfrs start to compete with each other (and the PS3).
Yes, there are other options available and BD may never be as popular as DVD is now, but it will continue to grow.
I have a Dish 622 receiver and am using the HDMI output converted to DVI with an adapter. My 50" DLP HDTV display only has a DVI input. I do not yet have an HDTV DVD player so I don't have hands-on experience with the Bu-Ray Player.
As I said earlier HDMI and HDCP are two different things. HDMI can carry an HDCP protocol and do the hand shake if needed provided the destination can respond and is HDCP compatable. I don't disagree with you that component is "analog only". I used to view analog component when I had the EchoStar 6000 as that was all it would output. The Dish 622 has both component and HDMI (it also has composite and RF which do not output HDTV). My Denon A/V receiver has two channels of component which I no longer use. Denon now has a new receiver with HDMI inputs and will support, if need be the HDCP.
I also stated earlier about projectors not being HDCP compatible. I know that there are a lot that can accept HDMI signals and can display true HD signals but I don't know of any yet that can handle the HDCP protocol.
We need a an article explaining some of this new terminology.
I also stated earlier about projectors not being HDCP compatible. I know that there are a lot that can accept HDMI signals and can display true HD signals but I don't know of any yet that can handle the HDCP protocol.
Sorry, but I think you're wrong again. I just checked on the Optoma HD80 since I'm considering buying one and this is directly from the user's manual:
HDMI & DVI support HDCP function
I believe MOST if not ALL displays with HDMI inputs today are HDCP compliant. I believe only the very early models with HDMI (3-4 years old) don't have HDCP.
