HDTV Almanac - Movie Gallery Files for Bankruptcy

I don't know... Hollywood was having problems before the download phenomena really began. If they were, I suspect all the stores in the chain were, too. The local Hollywood stores in my neighborhood (one near me, and one in a neighboring town) are both shuttered, and have been for a while. Even Blockbuster is having a tough time here. Meanwhile, Netflix and Redbox are chugging right along. At least a large portion of the change is in just that. Most of the people I know are Netflix customers, but very few of them know, or care, about downloading. ...and that includes almost all of my fellow (young) employees at Peet's Coffee.

I am not so sure we are looking at an inevitable end of optical media just yet. I agree that rentals on optical media will lose a lot of ground to downloads and streaming, but I don't necesarily see downloads displacing blu-ray or even DVDs yet as an ownership vehicle. While I am willing to pay $2 on ITunes to catch up on the last episode of Lost (if it's not on Hulu) or $5 on a PPV streaming video, I am not quite ready to "buy" a $20 download if what I want is my own copy of Quantum of Solace. The number of Blu-Ray players being sold still seem to indicate that for years to come consumers will be looking to take advantage of that format and the unsurpassed quality it presents for a long time. Streaming is still compressed and cannot yet rival Blu-ray. But even when they do, I sense that there aren't significant numbers of folks out there who are willing to shell out upwards of $15 for a movie without getting something physical that they can admire. Admit it, we all like the feeling of having a nice blue box, printed packaging, and a shiny disc that we call our own.

That feeling of ownwershp is hard to rival with...

It seems to me it was a year or 2 ago that I predicted the death of removable media.

That feeling of ownwershp is hard to rival with...

I get that, but it has its limits. How many of you reading this bought movies on VHS tapes? When was the last time you watched one? Did any of you buy LaserDisc movies? How's that working out for you?

10 to 15 years from now, when we're streaming 2K or even 4K stereoscopic video to our living rooms, I don't think your Blu-ray discs will get any more use than that great geology text you saved from college because you figured you'd get around to really studying it someday. I understand the joys of ownership, but I don't think that this alone can sustain an outmoded media format.

Alfred

They really pushed hard for us to to buy every piece of crap movie they ever released it seems. There might be 10 or less movies or series I would even want to watch more than once. With HBO, Showtime, Starz, Encore, etc. pay per view and on demand who needs to take up the shelf space. I would like the option of buying, downloading or licensing. I have been tossing a lot of VHS because it is unlikely that I will ever watch them again in my lifetime. I am doing the same with CD's, DVD's and books. They've created a hoarding society...

Did any of you buy LaserDisc movies? How's that working out for you?

Well, my LDs still look good. Obviously not up to HD but many of them look as good (a few better) than some standard DVDs. And most of them have better audio. Not to mention the titles that have never been released on DVD, HD-DVD, or BD. So LD has been working out just fine for me for over 20 years. That's a longer run than standard DVD!

Film11, I'm glad to hear that your LD titles are holding up. My question isn't so much about how good they look, however, but how often do you watch them? I suspect that the vast majority of purchased movies -- whether it is VHS, Beta, LaserDisc, DVD, Blu-ray, or downloaded -- are watched only once. I would be surprised if more than a third were watched a second time, and for those that have been watched five times or more, I'd expect that we're well into the single digit percentages. And that's even factoring in a two-year-old's ability to watch the same Barney video over and over and over and over again. (I'm only considering private purchases by consumers; copies bought to be rented don't count.)

Say the average price is $15, this makes the average purchased movie pretty expensive, especially when compared with the rental price.

Alfred

That is where I agree. With the LDs, I occasionally pull one out and fire it up for fun. I buy very few movies on BD (This year, I only bought three) because I just don't see how often I can watch the same movie repeatedly. The 3 I purchased, I know I'll watch again. But for most films, once usually is enough. With a tough economy, I suspect many others are starting to follow suit. Streaming is perfect for most people, who could care elss about PQ or AQ. Think of how many people own HDTVs and don't even realize they are not getting HD! Or have the sets set to Stretch-O-Vision.

I would be surprised if more than a third were watched a second time, and for those that have been watched five times or more, I'd expect that we're well into the single digit percentages.

I'm probably in the minority, but the majority of my purchased DVDs were accumulated specifically because I will - and do - watch them more than once. It has to do with how little I find on TV (Dish network everything package). Even the channels with movies have little to offer most of the time - unless, of course, it's one of the movies I have in my DVD collection. Then it comes to whether or not the movie is on a channel a)without commercials; b)proper screen format; and c)something I haven't already seen recently. And, yes, I have a Netflix account as well, for those movies I fully expect to watch only once. Even there, if I'm pushed enough to want to watch a movie a second time, I'll just put it back in my queue and move it up the rank.

With all the above, though, I still find I re-watch quite a few of my purchased DVDs (at least 30%) regularly. The rest also multiple times, just not as often.

Finally, I'm still waiting for a broadband (wired or wireless) setup that pumps the movies from a download directly into my TV. If the only choice is watching on my computer, forget it. I spent too many years at a computer screen working (since the late 70's) to find any way to feel comfortable watching a movie that way. I haven't found any connection that does what I want and also gets good enough reviews to tempt me. As far as upgrading my TV, why? It provides me with good color and HD. The fact it's as old as it is, and has less than the connections of the newer ones only means somebody out there needs to be thinking about how to get the movies to me. I know I'm not alone in how my video/audio system is set up. Until someone decides it's worth their while to do what's needed, I'll just sit back with my system and watch my DVDs.

Great column and fascinating debate. Thank you for bringing up this interesting topic.

I don't think it's all decided. There are many indicators pointing towards the death of optical, but some others seem not too. Let me elaborate:

How many of you reading this bought movies on VHS tapes? When was the last time you watched one? Did any of you buy LaserDisc movies? How's that working out for you?

I agree. The problem is that we seldom ask ourselves how often we will really watch a movie before we buy it. It's irrational, but it will happen. The question to ask is what will make me buy a download instead of a shiny disc.

Short argument: Why am I not convinced the optical disc is on its last leg? Well, let's look at other things that should have been obsolete and that have more reason to be obsolete. Movie theaters, CDs, Books. Yet, they are still around and not on the endangered species list.

Longer discussion

Downloads or streaming will not yet displace the optical disc because they are not yet positioned in a way to really push out optical discs. I believe they will coexist for a while longer.

What drove collectors to drop VHS for Laserdisc and then to DVDs and now Blu-ray is in my opinion the fact that each format provided higher quality or better content above the previous at a similar price point and with increased convenience: There is no reason for me to buy or rent a download version for a movie I already own. On the other hand, I am on my 2nd copy of Predator (VHS, DVD) and I am pondering the $9.99 version on Blu-ray on Amazon.

I'd further venture that owning vs. buying is a purely economic decision. Price, or perhaps buy vs rent price ratio will determine whether we are collectors or renters. At $100 a piece I can't think of 10 titles I would buy. At $5 a piece,I will consider buying Hudson Hawk if it was on Blu-Ray.

Do downloads really beat optical. While we'd all agree that the download offers more convenience, we'd also agree that the optical still reigns in terms of quality.

Granted, as broadband speeds climb, and compression algorithms increase, downloads can get better and better. But also consider that optical media can become a moving target. What if in the same time span we are dealing with 1 inch discs capable of storing 25 movies. Hmm... Now the convenience edge is not that clear because downloads still would cost space and streaming would cost time.

My main problem with downloads and streaming is they that too high a premium is charged for the convenience of it. Let's look at an example: Hurt Locker is $22.99 on Blu-Ray from Amazon (Best Buy $29.99), and $19.99 in HD on ITunes to own. To rent: It's $5.99 from Blockbuster and $4.99 on Itunes. In Standard definition, same price to buy and same price to rent physical or download.

I won't even consider the purchase. No way. On the rental it really depends. It's 9pm Saturday night, I am already in my Pjs and we want to watch a specific movie: download, streaming, PPV, come to Daddy. I am on a plane - bring on the streaming. However, let's say that it's Tuesday afternoon, and I want to load up for the weekend? Well, I'd print out my coupons and drive to Blockbuster.

Consider that downloads and streaming are a lot of hassle too. Check out the rental rules for ITunes: http://www.apple.com/legal/itunes/us/terms.html#SALE
Can't take to another computer.Have 24 hours to watch.

Consider that the average person will find it much easier to pop a disc into a tray and hit play than to somehow get their downloaded show over to their TV and watch it.

Consider that the movie industry and the electronics manufacturers (sometimes the same people) have a lot invested in Blu-Ray and even in DVD. There still money being made and no sign that they are willing to abandon any of the formats. Not when PCs are coming out with Blu-Ray players, Laptops are just now coming out with blu-ray players and there is a recordable format out there trying to gain a foothold. Now when 80% of households have a DVD player or better but only 50% of households have broadband and at that, not necessarily 20/5 FIOs either.

Consider also that consumers are not necessarily the decision makers here. We have a voice, but we are not totally in control. If we were, HD-DVD would still be around and CDs would be gone or cost $3.

Why is the DVD or Blu-Ray a dying breed when CDs, that are totally, totally eclipsed by MP3s still around? Well, Cds will start dying perhaps when new albums stop coming on CDs but directly for download.

Movie theaters are alive because the studios agree that it's in their best interest to keep them viable. And they do this by not releasing a movie on any other format while it's in the theaters.

So what could change the game and force optical out then? Not the studios, as long as they are making money.

Here are some signs that could indicate they are ready to move on and call for the demise of optical media in my view:

- A movie becomes cheaper and cheaper to rent or buy as a download than on a disc.
- Some key movies are only offered as downloads.
- All-you-can eat movie streaming services start popping up
- Culture change: People really don't want to see discs anymore.
- Better physical medium: movies come out on tiny memory sticks.


I mention those changes because they are likely to get my attention and make me change my behavior. I am not so sure the industry is interested in me changing my behavior just yet though. I believe they still want to sell DVDs and Blu-Rays, (players and movies). They want to make me rent downloads that self-destruct in the next 5 seconds. Maybe rental outfits need to diversify to survive. Maybe other alternatives such as Rdbox are going to appear. But disc rental is not quite dead. And certainly not disc buying.

Streaming is perfect for most people, who could care elss about PQ or AQ. Think of how many people own HDTVs and don't even realize they are not getting HD! Or have the sets set to Stretch-O-Vision.

I think the problem is that the folks who could care less about quality are the ones less equipped to know how to get a download playing on their TVs. They are still more likely to rent a disc via BBster or Netflix.

Actually, I suspect that they are primarily RedBox customers.

Alfred