The HDTV Forum
A Report
Dale Cripps
The first HDTV
conference sponsored and produced by Display Research and Insight Media,
billed as �HDTV Forum,� was an unqualified success. The two day event,
also sponsored by the CEA, the HDTVAA, Sony, Zoran, ATI Technologies,
Pixelworks, Widescreen Review, Highdef Magazine, Custom Retailers, and
Dealerscope was held at the elegant Marriot Hotel in Marina Del Rey,
California November 12th and 13th. New faces to HDTV were seen among the
300 or so in attendance. All could be heard on the last day saying that
they had learned a great deal from this conference. The most important
thing to be learned was that HDTV is here and coming to the masses like a
bullet train. There is no stopping it now. Everyone took notes as if their
future depended upon it, and it likely does.
Sean Wargo from
the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) was among the first presenters
to proffer plenty of facts and figures. They all looked pretty good
too
except those showing the level of confusion remaining in the marketplace.
We are today at 8 percent penetration costing we consumers some $20
billion of our hard earned bucks. That figure is due to jump up to an
annual $15.5 billion in 2007 when 16.23 million units will be shipped.
While according to Wargo there is an increasing familiarity with the term
�HDTV� there is a stubborn confusion which engulfs the entire movement.
Some 21 percent of the public can�t tell you what HDTV is over DTV while
14 percent think that digital cable is HDTV and 13 percent think satellite
TV is HDTV. When it comes to familiarity with what programming is
available over 70 percent of those surveyed said they didn�t know anything
about it. Only 21 percent said they had some knowledge about HDTV
programming yet 73 percent had some familiarity with the term high-def.
Most (67 percent) think movies is the type of programming best for HDTV
and 61 percent say its sports. Only 25 percent were aware that there is a
set-top box involved (in most cases) and only 23 percent were aware that a
new recorder was required. Some 43 percent were aware that all shows are
not in HDTV. I don�t know if this means that 57 percent think all shows
are in HDTV of if they were just non-responsive.
Jim Sanduski,
Samsung�s Marketing Vice President for Visual Display
products
strengthened our reasons to believe HDTV is here forever with a paper he
entitled �The Inevitability Of HDTV.� Sanduski now heads the HDTV
initiative for the CEA, taking over from Peter Fannon. He went through the
litany of conditions present and future that reinforces his vision that
HDTV is the big deal of the future. In his final remarks on closing day,
he extended a welcome to us all into what he calls the GOLDEN AGE OF
CONSUMER ELECTRONICS.
Some familiar
notables were in attendance including the now-legendary Yves Faroudja and
the becoming legendary Joe Kane. Faroudja made his mark in television
history by following the rules for NTSC and making it work like no one
thought it could. Joe Kane
has taken the same tact in his work with HDTV. Both huddled together to
trade insights. I heard Faroudja say after Joe Kane�s Wednesday morning
presentation that he was �absolutely right.� And what was he right about?
Joe says that not all of the potential of HDTV is reaching the end
users�you and me. There is not enough care nor equipment available to
insure that the production and post-production processes deliver all what
is potential in the signal. He and world-famous cinematographer, Allen
Daviau traveled to many Southern California post production facilities who
were working on HD television shows or movies. Joe lamented over the
limitations which they found in all post facilities. According to Kane the
horizontal resolution of �finished� telecine work was measured at little
more than 800 to 900 lines. He explained that many telecine artists
monitor their output on small displays which can�t reveal the limitation
of resolution they themselves are applying. It�s not that a telecine
doesn�t have the capacity to deliver all of the 1080 X 1920 or 1280 X 720
but the operators trim the resolutions back. They don�t see what is being
lost on their tiny monitors and so let a good picture on them pass for a
finished product. Joe has set out to educate not only the consumers as to
what constitutes a good picture but what makes it good throughout the
production and delivery chain. Those of us who do appreciate a
well-presented HDTV program will be erecting a statue to Joe Kane before
it�s all over. He has a missionary zeal about picture quality and while
met constantly with resistances at every turn he is making his points
stick in ever-wider circles. Joe has also worried that displays will begin
to fall short of what is optimum due to the pressure from prices. He
worries that we will end up in some EDTV world by default. From what I saw
and heard at the conference this concern can be relaxed or replaced with
other concerns which still impact the quality side of the movement.
I say that
because the direction that displays are going, at least according to the
conference, is for the better. I should add to that the companion term
�and cheaper.� The huge investments being made in both next-generation
flat panel LCDs and plasmas fabs insures that those devices will grow
bigger and better and cheaper. The 10-ton baby gorilla still soiling its
diapers is the LCoS�Liquid Crystal on Glass. Using a single chip and color
wheel the LCoS promises all the pixels in the HDTV standard to end up on
the screen. The LCoS did have a rocky start a few years back. RCA tried
and failed due to technical snags in the production of first-generation
chips. Toshiba began to market an LCoS but has delayed production. Philips
and Sony are still in the LCoS market with Sony calling the LCoS
technology in their new front projector SXRD. Everyone is confident. All
of the bumps are not yet smoothed out but by the end of 2007 they will be
and LCoS will have 3 percent of the big screen market (up to 75 inches).
The CRT rear projectors will still dominate that market in 2007 with 76.4
percent on their side. The DLP will have aggregated a 17.8 percent of
market share.
The LCoS is
amenable to a higher level of integration than is the CRT. The LCoS engine
is going to get very cheap when the high production engineers finish
making assemblies into one piece castings. The electronics and optics will
just �drop in.� Already very high production companies that we don�t hear
about were there �casing� the joint and talking about entering in the next
two to three years with very, very low prices for all of what we now pay a
small fortune for. These are the companies that step in and make for other
labels the very cheap VCRs and DVDs and TVs. When these people are
snooping around it is only a matter of time before mass-priced merchandise
is on the shelves. What about quality? Will it stay in? Those people tell
me they fully recognize that picture quality is all that HDTV has to sell.
If they let that down they are out of business. They buy mature technical
solutions which are very cheap for them, yet still workable.
While the Texas
Instrument DLP is showing brilliant images today there are those who are
not entirely happy with that approach and think that the LCoS system will
eventually out-perform, out last, and out price it perhaps within the next
decade. There is no easy road for DLP to reach 1080p X 1920 and LCoS and
D-ILA� are already there. The fabrication of the second generation LCoS
chips is now under way and marketers are looking for their customers. The
LCoS advocates claim that a 2000:1 contrast ratio is possible. Those who
understand the limits on blacks due to the constant-on light source, which
both LCoS and D-ILA uses, remain skeptical. If the rich blacks achievable
now with analog CRT (tube) front and rear projectors is equaled by a
fixed-pixel reflective approach there will be dancing in the digital
highways of the world. Did I say it would be cheap? It is expected that
LCoS will have the lowest cost per pixel of any display, and you get all
of it without the typical video artifacts plus 100 percent of the
resolution and the color that is within the signal. It is perfectly suited
for video games, computer, Internet, and email applications. The only
thing that will differentiate makers of sets using these engines will be
the added features they want to glue into the back end of the TV.
The back end of
the HDTV television�the guts that demodulate signals, decodes them, and
with 2D and 3D graphics engines displays them�is also becoming little more
than a commodity chip. Being that there are only a few manufacturers of
such chips, as is ATI Technologies, Inc., economies of scale can be
reached quickly. By the time the chip sets for 2006 are readied (with all
of the improvements in 8-VSB and the inclusion of Open Cable and satellite
standards plus alternative DVB specifications (OFDM) a global movement
will be underway that taps into the projected 160 million units a year.
Not all will be HDTV, of course, but we just don�t know what the split
will be. The value proposition will be with HDTV, not NTSC, PAL, or SECAM.
The chips will have all popular demodulation schemes incorporated so that
the argument over 8-VSB and COFDM can be put to rest (with FCC actions
required). A broadcaster should be able to use the modulation he or she
finds best for their particular region since all of the sets with the
ATI-like architecture will demodulate whatever is sent to them. These
chips will work in set-top boxes as well as integrated televisions. The
price for demodulating cable, satellite, and over-the-air is predicted to
be $20.25 (price to manufacturers ordering in quantity). The brands (Sony,
Toshiba, Panasonic, etc.,) who buy these highly integrated chips can write
a few lines of software for their own interface (for their own look and
feel and features), hook to a display (securely), buy or build a cabinet,
and it�s done. The TV of tomorrow is built from a few highly specialized
outsourced components assembled and then sold through their brand�s
marketing channel. This move to HDTV came at a time when the cost was
about to come out of all electronic manufacturing ($499 computers, etc.)
and all of the big benefits of cost-cutting knowledge is focused into
HDTV, thus making it lower in cost inch per square inch of viewing area
than NTSC. It just has to be labeled a fantastic bargain. And the good
news for dealers is that HDTV carries a 30 percent margin (for even the
largest retailers) as compared to a 5 percent or less margin in computer
goods. It is no wonder that CompUSA is opening 191 stores for high-end
video sales and that Gateway has added over 80 products to its 190 stores,
most of those products being video and video related.
The LCD flat
panel option for HDTV is also leaping forward with the next generation of
fabrication (five new fabs operating by 2006 and possibly five additional
new fabs by 2008). The LCD could displace the 40-inch and under plasma
displays and make the biggest dent yet in the large-size CRT market. One
advantage to the LCD is in its being a true 1080 X 1920 display. Cost is
another advantage, at least up to 40 inches. The wide viewing angle is
another. With a respectable 800:1 contrast ratio and uniform screen
brightness these big LCD displays are poised to capture a respectable
segment of the under 40-inch market by 2008. Manufacturers, like CMO, know
they have to be better than CRTs in performance at a price to tip the
scales. That is a big order which includes overcoming a long-standing
weakness of LCDs�motion rendition. The response time (to stimulus) has
been the problem which has been addressed more successfully of late.
Quicker response time will be incorporated in the output from the new fabs
now being built. The yield rate�once unbearably low�has risen to 90
percent in the 30-inch and under group. According to Ross Young of Display
Research the bigger markets are in the under 40-inch category. The 40-inch
and over global market accounts for only 2 percent of sales this last
year, 3 percent this year (2003), and the market share will crawl up to 9
percent by 2007. The big seller by 2008 is expected to be the 28-inch to
32-inch (29 percent share in 2008) with LCD predicted to own 20 percent of
that market by 2007. That accounts for the very large investments being
made now for LCD displays. The old faithful�the CRT�will still dominate
through 2007 in the most popular size category with an 80 percent share.
If one breaks out the widescreen share from the total market then the LCD
winds up taking 56 percent of that market by 2007. The LCD has one huge
advantage over its shorter life plasma cousin�the companies can cross
subsidize some of the TV entry costs through the larger laptop and desktop
LCD markets. Still, the LCD carries a price premium over that of the CRT.
People seem to be willing to pay a 200 percent price premium over an
equivalent sized CRT for whatever reason they have�usually the footprint.
The disadvantages are in historical cost increases that come to plague the
LCD market�something the TV industry is not used to. To some, an uneven
brightness from backlighting is also a concern. The viewing angle is still
not as wide as with some alternatives, like the CRT and plasma. But unlike
plasmas and some rear-projection CRTs the LCD doesn�t have burn in
problems.
The PDP
(plasma) panels do have some advantageous over LCD flat panels. There is a
faster response time with PDPs for better motion rendition. There is still
a wider viewing angle. There is a wider color gamut (1.4 times that of
LCD), and the fab costs are far less. There is more flexibility in
adjustments to markets and to ramping up for higher production capacity.
It is easier and less costly for a PDP fab than for LCD. There is some
brightness advantage too, but this is hardly of value to those who watch
HDTV in the more proper setting of a darkened room. It may help on the
showroom floor where contrast is everything.
Programming
Programming is
definitely on the rise. Annette Bouso, Senior Vice President for
distribution services for Warner Bros. was there to say that fully 80
percent of everything now produced at Warner Bros. is either shot or
transferred from film to HDTV. By next year it will be 100 percent HDTV
output. They will transfer any of their huge libraries of films upon
request (some kind of purchase agreement). TheWB now has 77 percent of its
prime time being produced and finished in HDTV and 75 percent of Warner�s
productions are produced in HDTV. If you are in the business you can call
up WB today and order for your HDTV network�s play list 100 percent of the
features they have produced or distributed since 1999. Not only are they
selling their HDTV versions to all of the national television signal
providers but also to those in Japan, Australia, Canada, and Korea.
Warner�s forecast is that bandwidth expenses will continue to drop and
compression will continue to improve, thus lowering distribution costs.
While producing with HDTV today carries a 20 percent premium it is
expected to be on par with NTSC within two years. By the year 2007 all of
the feature library from Warner Bros. will be converted to HDTV. Within
the next two to three years 100 percent of their productions will be in
HDTV. They eagerly look forward to the HD-DVD in whatever form that takes.
Most of the seven studios are in step with this scenario.
Signal Providers
Two
broadcasters�Hal Protter from TheWB and Martin Franks from CBS�both senior
vice presidents of their respective organizations�talked to the audience.
Both come with a great deal of HDTV history. Both talked unscripted in
eager and enthusiastic terms as they touched upon some of the protracted
issues, like the broadcast flag and cable carriage. Hal offered that HDTV
is an important step for TheWB even though there are unpaid costs still
associated with doing it. As far as moving the transition forward Hal
didn�t feel that education of the public was still a big issue as much as
getting the confusion out of the public. �We have to unconfuse the public
by making it less confusing.� Indeed, this confusion theme popped up more
than once. Not only are we moving to a new system that comes with 18
formats, two of which are HDTV each with a different number of lines but
we must also grapple with new terms coming to consumer TV�LCD, Plasma, DLP,
D-ILA, RP, DVI, 8-VSB and on and on it goes. As moderator to the panel
Conrad Dinke said, �It�s like taking a drink from a fire hose.�
Cable carriage
is also important to TheWB. Their strong HDTV showing this year is
designed as much for attracting the cable operators around the nation as
it is in entertaining those few who can presently receive TheWB signals
from their affiliated stations (TheWB owns no stations). Not even the
TheWB executive that he hopes to influence in his HDTV drive�those who are
living in Southern California�can receive terrestrial signals from Mt
Wilson. The local cable company doesn�t carry them yet. It�s frustrating
trying to promote the concept of HDTV in the home under such conditions.
Hal also noted that there is no fully reliable antenna information to be
found anywhere. He concluded saying that the stores don�t know yet what
they are doing but it is still getting better all the time. For example,
those who were once posturing against the transition, such as Sinclair
Broadcast Group and Papas Broadcasting, were now going full tilt into it
with a complete commitment.
Martin Franks
recanted what CBS has done and what is slated to be done and encouraged
patience as they work out any remaining glitches to the digital
installations. He noted that the expense is high for CBS on the big sports
programs but even so he would like to see CBS become a 52-week-a-year
carrier of live sports. He said sports (football) comes at an added cost
of some $250,000 a day.
Both presenters
would not resent cable for somehow paying them for their programming since
cable uses the locals and networks to market their own services.
Best Buy spoke
shortly thereafter with two presenters, both marketing specialist and well
trained. They showed us video tapes of sales and marketing discussions
with the first line offense in the sales showroom floor. What are the
customers asking for? How many times do they come in before they buy? What
can Best Buy do to help educate the public? The new CEA booklet was noted
as a tool but also just simplifying and unifying terms was decidedly an
important job still to be done.
The DISH
Network was there and made it clear that they are forward thinking about
HDTV. The talk of their moving up to 50 channels of HDTV perked up ears in
the conference room. New satellites, improved compression, and new dishes
(SuperDISH) will permit the added channel capacity. They also have their
low cost set-top decoder in the pipeline�the Model 811�which was called
the �Chevy� of HDTV. Complete with DVI, built in 8-VSB tuner, a UHF remote
it comes in a stand alone package for $399. If that doesn�t blow your
socks off you can fly first class with their DVR 921, which is their first
HD-capable DVR with two tuners and a capacity to record off-air programs
as well. The DVR 921 has a 250 GB hard drive that can record 28 hours of
HDTV or 180 hours of the SDTV. DISH has also bundled up some mid-range
HDTV sets to sell to those who can�t figure it out in the other
marketplaces. DISH customers can choose from a 34-inch direct-view monitor
or a 40-inch rear projector. With each comes the DISH Model 811 receiver,
the SuperDISH, installation, for a grand total solution of $1,499 MSRP.
As always with
big conference one never sees it all and some study of materials taken
home must substitute. So, take this as no more than highlights and in
coming days the rest of the information will be forthcoming.
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