HDTV and Home Theater Podcast - Podcast #406: Predictions for 2010

Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesnt stop us from trying. With technology moving so fast its difficult to know where its going to end up in just one year but its still fun to try!

Apple will change the TV industry OK so Im an Apple fanboy and this isnt much of a stretch. We have recently discovered that Apple owns the name iSlate and that they are trying to work deals with the major networks so that you can purchase an all you can eat iTunes plan. Imagine not having to set your DVR or even making room on the DVR for the next episode. With this plan you can take your content on the road with you on your laptop or the forthcoming Apple Tablet tentatively being called the iSlate. While not for everyone but if you are a light TV watcher this plan is ideal! Goodbye DVR guilt!

3D Will be Forced Upon All of Us So you just bought your first HDTV in 2009 and your loving it! The manufacturers will have you believing that you are already behind the times. 3D gives manufacturers the opportunity to sell you more equipment at premium prices. To date I have not seen a 3D movie that doesnt give me a headache. While movies like Avatar demonstrate the capabilities of the technology it will be quite some time before there are enough movies around that make an investment in 3D worthwhile. Regardless, look for a full court press pushing this technology.

OLED will break the 11 inch barrier for a commercially available model Look for LG to introduce a 40 inch model before the year is over. Dont expect that it will be affordable until our 2013 predictions show. At some point OLED will be the technology of choice. Its thin, has vivid colors and sips electricity. While we want this technology to succeed we are not holding our breath. We have been reporting on OLED since we started this show in 2005.

Plasma will hold on to market share if not get a little stronger People will realize that Plasma technology is still the best way to watch HDTV. Its time to put the Plasma myths to bed. Burn in is no longer an issue, Plasmas do not need to be recharged every couple of years, a properly calibrated Plasma uses only slightly more power than a similarly sized LCD, and new screen coatings have minimized screen glare. Why pay a premium for 240Hz or LED backlighting? These technologies were created just so they can compete with Plasma. A 58 inch plasma goes for $1500 and a 55 inch 240Hz LED lit LCD goes for $3000. Its a no brainer!

Netflix will make some new releases available via streaming It wont be all new releases, but Netflix will work out an arrangement with at least one studio to make their new release movies available the same time they show up on Amazon, AppleTV and Vudu. This may require a new pricing structure: an added fee on top of your existing monthly cost to get access to the new releases, but they will start to move in that direction.

Blockbuster will make the transition to kiosk Over the course of the year, Blockbuster will begin to close down the traditional brick and mortar rental stores in favor of more kiosks. They will need to invest in their online business to combat Netflix and their kiosk business to combat Redbox. This will require closing many of the traditional Blockbuster stores. There will still be stores at the end of the year, but significantly less than there are now.

High Definition streaming will become a reality Someone with a little more market penetration than Vudu, someone like Amazon, Netflix or Apple, will make the same video quality as Vudu HDX available to their customers. This will be the streaming version of HD-DVD: video quality will rival Blu-ray, and some movies will include Dolby Digital+ audio tracks. Who knows, one of the bigger players may even gobble up Vudu to get their hands on the HDX technology.

3D in the home will flop 3D in the home will go the way of SACD and laser disc. It will work great, and really please a small group of people, but wont make it much further than that. People wont rush out to buy new TVs. Many of the movies that come out on Blu-ray will include a 3D version, but youll simply get it for free with the regular Blu-ray and most people wont use it.

4K TV will emerge as the next big thing There are already 4K projectors, albeit very expensive ones, available today. A handful of prototype TVs have come and gone. But in 2010, well start to see 4K televisions in demo and prototype form all over the place before the end of the year. As they emerge, groups such as the ATSC will begin to work on the next generation of TV broadcast specs to include even more definition than the current HDTV spec.