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Today’s Show:

2010 Prediction Results

Each year we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. The last few years we have been about 30% accurate but that doesn’t stop us from trying. Let’s take a look back at what we thought 2010 would bring to see how we did.

Ara’s Predictions

Apple will change the TV industry – Almost.  There is a new Apple TV with AirPlay Technology, and as you can see in the video Ara made on the subject (AppleTV Airplay Demonstration) , AppleTV and Airplay have the potential to make a big splash in the living room. Because Apple is licensing the technology to 3rd party developers it can achieve broad acceptance and once Apple opens the AppleTV to apps, the industry will definitely change. Give me partial credit on this one.

3D Will be Forced Upon All of Us – Nailed this one.  Despite the fact that every major survey says most consumers don’t care at all about 3D, manufacturers are pushing it as the next major revolution in home entertainment.

OLED will break the 11 inch barrier for a commercially available model – “Look for LG to introduce a 40 inch model before the year is over.”  Unfortunately this didn’t happen.  The 11” Sony XEL-1 is still the only OLED TV available for sale in the US.  The price is down to a very reasonable $1799, however. LG did manage to show a 31 inch prototype so maybe next year this one will come to be a reality.

Plasma will hold on to market share if not get a little stronger – According to DisplaySearch approximately 4.8 million Plasma TVs were sold in Q3 of this year for a total market share of 8.1%.  That represents 8% Q/Q growth and 35% Y/Y growth (up from 6.5% market share in Q3 2009).  During the same period, LCD had 76.3% market share with 9% Q/Q growth but only 22% Y/Y growth.  Plasma didn’t steal market from LCD, but benefited along with LCD from the decline of CRT.  But bottom line, Plasma did, in fact, gain market share.

Total score: 2/4 – An astonishing 50%.

Braden’s Predictions

Netflix will make some new releases available via streaming – Unfortunately not.  Netflix is pushing hard to get more content, both on the Movie and TV side, but still no new releases via streaming.

Blockbuster will make the transition to kiosk – Yep.  Here’s the quotes: “Blockbuster has already closed more than 1,000 underperforming stores in the past two years…The company revealed … that it plans to close 72 stores before the end of the year and another 110 stores in the first few months of 2011.” AND… “…through the alliance with NCR Corp., {Blockbuster} expects at least 7,500 Blockbuster Express kiosks by the end of 2010.”

High Definition streaming will become a reality – Still waiting, unfortunately.

3D in the home will flop – This really depends on how you look at it.  Manufacturers sure haven’t let up, but most surveys indicate that consumers are uninterested in the technology.  Twice Magazine reported that Adam Zwickler, a Best Buy Home Theater specialist said interest in 3D TV was “light” during their Black Friday weekend sales. A representative from Sears confirmed that assessment, noting that the 3D TVs drew little attention at their retail outlets as well.  Partial credit on this one?

4K TV will emerge as the “next big thing” – Nope.  Nothing.  Nada.  Manufacturers are holding onto the 3D thing, so there’s no need to introduce the “next big thing” yet.

Total score: 1.75/5 – A respectable 35%, right in line with our average.


Download Episode #458

Posted by The HT Guys, December 24, 2010 12:23 AM

About The HT Guys

The HT Guys, Ara Derderian and Braden Russell, are Engineers who formerly worked for the Advanced Digital Systems Group (ADSG) of Sony Pictures Entertainment. ADSG was the R&D unit of the sound department producing products for movie theaters and movie studios.

Two of the products they worked on include the DCP-1000 and DADR-5000. The DCP is a digital cinema processor used in movie theaters around the world. The DADR-5000 is a disk-based audio dubber used on Hollywood sound stages.

ADSG was awarded a Technical Academy Award by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 2000 for the development of the DADR-5000. Ara holds three patents for his development work in Digital Cinema and Digital Audio Recording.

Every week they put together a podcast about High Definition TV and Home Theater. Each episode brings news from the A/V world, helpful product reviews and insights and help in demystifying and simplifying HDTV and home theater.