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Today’s Show:

Predictions for 2011

It’s that time of year where we try to look into the future and predict the state of the industry. Last year we improved our accuracy a small fraction but we’re still hanging in around 30%. So let’s take another shot for 2011.

So were not going to take the obvious predictions like:

  • HDTV prices will drop
  • 3D TV will become the predominant TV available for sale
  • 3D content will become more abundant
  • Streaming will become more available
  • Web Connected TVs will become the norm
  • Redbox streaming Video
  • iPad anything

But then again that’s is why we are only at 30% on our predictions each year!

Ara’s Predictions:

LCD TVs hit 600Hz refresh rate – Look for at least one LCD manufacturer to introduce a TV with 600Hz refresh rate. That’s 10 times faster than the first generation LCDs. Will it make your TV look better? Come on! Of course it will look ten times better than your original LCD ;-)

Automobile Based Mobile Video will become a reality – About 5 CESs ago Braden and I saw a demonstration of mobile satellite TV that was pretty cool. But you needed a large antenna mounted on the top of your roof that made it impossible to put anything else up there. With mobile DTV, 3G and LTE cell networks it will become possible to watch network television on monitors in your car with little more than a cell phone antenna and a mobile device. Look for Ford’s My Sync System to be first with a solution followed by GM and BMW.

An LCD TV will be demonstrated that is 1mm thick or less – In 2008 Pioneer showed off a TV that was 9mm thick, in May of 2009 it was LG showing off a TV with a 5.9mm thickness and at last year’s CES LG showed a TV that was only 2.6mm deep. So why not push the envelope a bit and predict a 1 mm TV? At that point is OLED even needed in a large format display?

Google TV will Flop – Despite the money behind Google I think the bad press GoogleTV received at the end of 2010 will be difficult to overcome.

Braden’s Predictions:

Designer 3D Glasses – Knowing that CE manufacturers aren’t giving up on the whole 3D thing, traditional sunglasses companies will see the need for people to take their own 3D glasses with them to friends houses or sports bars to enjoy TV in 3D.  You’ll be able to buy Oakley or Ray-ban 3D glasses, to look stylish, even if you don’t own a 3D TV (These are for the home, so they’re active 3D, not passive).

Pico Projectors will build a niche – Some inventive companies will find ways to make Pico projectors relevant to home theater or TV viewing in general.  At less than $500 each, for potentially a 60”-100” screen, there’s got to be a way to make them viable for home entertainment, like multiple screens in a loft or bonus room, or a sports bar type of setting.  “Living” walls like we see in all the futuristic movies?

New releases via streaming – Movie theater owners will put up quite a fight, but needing to expand revenue, studios will make new releases available via streaming within 30 days of the theatrical release.  They’ll cost a hefty premium, somewhere in the $30-$40 range, but for a family of 4 (not to mention 6), it will still be a good deal.

I’ll take Google FTW - Despite the negative press around CES, Google will come out on top at the end of 2011.  Google TV will be everywhere, even making its way to the “value” brands like Vizio.  Android will dominate smart phone sales as well as tablet sales.
As always we welcome your predictions. Please post them in the form of a comment below.


Download Episode #459

Posted by The HT Guys, December 30, 2010 7:46 PM

About The HT Guys

The HT Guys, Ara Derderian and Braden Russell, are Engineers who formerly worked for the Advanced Digital Systems Group (ADSG) of Sony Pictures Entertainment. ADSG was the R&D unit of the sound department producing products for movie theaters and movie studios.

Two of the products they worked on include the DCP-1000 and DADR-5000. The DCP is a digital cinema processor used in movie theaters around the world. The DADR-5000 is a disk-based audio dubber used on Hollywood sound stages.

ADSG was awarded a Technical Academy Award by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 2000 for the development of the DADR-5000. Ara holds three patents for his development work in Digital Cinema and Digital Audio Recording.

Every week they put together a podcast about High Definition TV and Home Theater. Each episode brings news from the A/V world, helpful product reviews and insights and help in demystifying and simplifying HDTV and home theater.